Now that the 2010 season is officially over, it is time to wrap it up. At the start of the year COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN previewed each conference with a “5 Step Drop.” We will look back at those predictions to see how this year shaped up with what was expected in a series of “5 Yard Out” columns over the next few weeks. First up, the Southeastern Conference (SEC).
Showing posts with label SEC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SEC. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Monday, January 17, 2011
College Football Will Have A Playoff Soon
BCS haters and playoff proponents, your time has almost come. College football will have a playoff soon. That is right. The days of the BCS are, in fact, numbered. No more settling things by trying to impress voters by running up the score and scheduling weak FCS schools to earn style points. College football's champion will be settled on the field after more than two of the top teams face off in a multiple game, winner advances championship format.
No, this is not a dream. Two factors are pushing college football, fast, towards a playoff system.
1. The SEC monopoly on national championships.
As we just witnessed last week, Auburn made this the fifth consecutive year that a team from the SEC has won the national championship. Whether the SEC champion is undefeated, has one-loss or two-losses, they have always found their way into the BCS national championship game and won it the last five years. Don't expect this pattern to change next year.
ESPN's Way-too-early 2011 Top 25 already has Alabama number 2, and LSU number 4. It doesn't take a genius to see that the game between Alabama and LSU will be the de facto SEC championship game, and the winner will play in the BCS national championship game. Arkansas is losing Ryan Mallett and Auburn will be without Cam Newton. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are not ready to challenge these giants for the SEC West. The SEC East will not put up a fight. Florida will still be rebuilding. The best South Carolina team in a long time proved to be no match for an SEC West power. We all saw how bad Georgia was without A.J. Green during the first four games. Green will be gone all of 2011. Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt? No commentary necessary.
The Pac-10 became the third power conference to fail to unseat the SEC. The Big XII and Big Ten have both been unsuccessful in four total attempts (two each). These three conferences along with the Big East and the ACC, which are fighting just to stay relevant, aren't going to sit around and do nothing. Tradition has been a stumbling block in the past, but now it is a stepping stone.
We all balked a month ago about the Big Ten naming their divisions “Legends” and “Leaders.” Well, there is nothing legendary about not being able to win a national championship, and there is no leadership in finishing second. Out on the west coast, the Pac-10 is proud of its moniker the “Conference of Champions.” Calling yourself the “Conference of Champions” looks silly when you can't get a championship in THE marquee college sport. It will be these traditions that prevail in the end, not the Big Ten vs. Pac-10 playing in the Rose Bowl.
The only option to break up the SEC monopoly is a playoff system. With everyone else united on some sort of playoff model, the SEC will be forced to follow along.
2. ESPN wants a playoff.
And ESPN usually gets what it wants.
Dan Wetzel with Yahoo! Sports reported last year that Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany testified to Congress that a 16-team playoff would gross approximately $900 million a year (four times that of the current BCS format). ESPN is well aware of this, and it wants its share.
In 2008, ESPN outbid the competition for “exclusive television, radio, digital, international and marketing rights” for the BCS bowl games from 2011-2014. While this year's BCS games were the first under this contract with ESPN, the next bidding war will take place in 2012. You better believe that ESPN will be doing everything in its power to ensure this package includes a plus-one game or some other form of a playoff. In fact, ESPN already is.
We have all heard the cliché “toe the company line.” During this past college football season, the ESPN television, radio, and Internet personalities were not toeing the company line. They were as far from it as possible. In the first year of its contract to broadcast BCS games, you would expect the ESPN corporate executives to send a memo to everyone telling them to fawn over the BCS and build it up as the best thing that happened to college football since the Heisman Trophy. It appears that a memo stating the opposite was sent. I have never heard the ESPN broadcasters lament so openly and frequently the controversy of the BCS while building up the virtues of a playoff.
ESPN knows the power that it has to shape college football. It has made a calculated decision to wield that power to bring about a playoff as soon as possible.
Money and prestige will bring what so many have been waiting decades to have: a playoff for the highest level of NCAA football. Love it or hate it, brace yourself, because it is coming sooner than you expect.
The Editor appreciates all feedback. He can be reached via email at collegefootballhaven12@gmail.com
Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Game Predictions: 2010 Bowl Results
Weekly Trivia: National Championship Winners Since 1957
Poll Results: Which New Year's Day Loss was the Worst for the Big Ten
College Football Haven Top 25, Final, 2010
Monday Musings: Any Changes to BCS Championship Game For Arizona Shootings?
No, this is not a dream. Two factors are pushing college football, fast, towards a playoff system.
1. The SEC monopoly on national championships.
As we just witnessed last week, Auburn made this the fifth consecutive year that a team from the SEC has won the national championship. Whether the SEC champion is undefeated, has one-loss or two-losses, they have always found their way into the BCS national championship game and won it the last five years. Don't expect this pattern to change next year.
ESPN's Way-too-early 2011 Top 25 already has Alabama number 2, and LSU number 4. It doesn't take a genius to see that the game between Alabama and LSU will be the de facto SEC championship game, and the winner will play in the BCS national championship game. Arkansas is losing Ryan Mallett and Auburn will be without Cam Newton. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are not ready to challenge these giants for the SEC West. The SEC East will not put up a fight. Florida will still be rebuilding. The best South Carolina team in a long time proved to be no match for an SEC West power. We all saw how bad Georgia was without A.J. Green during the first four games. Green will be gone all of 2011. Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt? No commentary necessary.
The Pac-10 became the third power conference to fail to unseat the SEC. The Big XII and Big Ten have both been unsuccessful in four total attempts (two each). These three conferences along with the Big East and the ACC, which are fighting just to stay relevant, aren't going to sit around and do nothing. Tradition has been a stumbling block in the past, but now it is a stepping stone.
We all balked a month ago about the Big Ten naming their divisions “Legends” and “Leaders.” Well, there is nothing legendary about not being able to win a national championship, and there is no leadership in finishing second. Out on the west coast, the Pac-10 is proud of its moniker the “Conference of Champions.” Calling yourself the “Conference of Champions” looks silly when you can't get a championship in THE marquee college sport. It will be these traditions that prevail in the end, not the Big Ten vs. Pac-10 playing in the Rose Bowl.
The only option to break up the SEC monopoly is a playoff system. With everyone else united on some sort of playoff model, the SEC will be forced to follow along.
2. ESPN wants a playoff.
And ESPN usually gets what it wants.
Dan Wetzel with Yahoo! Sports reported last year that Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany testified to Congress that a 16-team playoff would gross approximately $900 million a year (four times that of the current BCS format). ESPN is well aware of this, and it wants its share.
In 2008, ESPN outbid the competition for “exclusive television, radio, digital, international and marketing rights” for the BCS bowl games from 2011-2014. While this year's BCS games were the first under this contract with ESPN, the next bidding war will take place in 2012. You better believe that ESPN will be doing everything in its power to ensure this package includes a plus-one game or some other form of a playoff. In fact, ESPN already is.
We have all heard the cliché “toe the company line.” During this past college football season, the ESPN television, radio, and Internet personalities were not toeing the company line. They were as far from it as possible. In the first year of its contract to broadcast BCS games, you would expect the ESPN corporate executives to send a memo to everyone telling them to fawn over the BCS and build it up as the best thing that happened to college football since the Heisman Trophy. It appears that a memo stating the opposite was sent. I have never heard the ESPN broadcasters lament so openly and frequently the controversy of the BCS while building up the virtues of a playoff.
ESPN knows the power that it has to shape college football. It has made a calculated decision to wield that power to bring about a playoff as soon as possible.
Money and prestige will bring what so many have been waiting decades to have: a playoff for the highest level of NCAA football. Love it or hate it, brace yourself, because it is coming sooner than you expect.
The Editor appreciates all feedback. He can be reached via email at collegefootballhaven12@gmail.com
Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Game Predictions: 2010 Bowl Results
Weekly Trivia: National Championship Winners Since 1957
Poll Results: Which New Year's Day Loss was the Worst for the Big Ten
College Football Haven Top 25, Final, 2010
Monday Musings: Any Changes to BCS Championship Game For Arizona Shootings?
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Weekly Trivia: Georgia Bulldogs Starting 4-5
The answer to last week's trivia question, "How many players reached the 1,000 yards rushing plateau in 2009?" is 53, per ESPN.com.
Two weeks ago we looked at an SEC team getting off to a good start, this week we will look at an SEC team off to an uncharacteristically poor start. With their overtime loss to the Florida Gators, the Georgia Bulldogs fell to 4-5. This week's question is:
For more trivia questions, visit the Trivia page.
Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Heisman Hopefuls: Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley Eliminated
Monday Musings: LaMichael James is the Oregon Ducks’ Secret to Success
College Football Haven Top 25, Week 9, 2010
Poll Results: Should Auburn be the BCS number 1?
Weekly Predictions/Game of the Week
The Michigan Wolverines Should Retain Rich Rodriguez In 2011
Two weeks ago we looked at an SEC team getting off to a good start, this week we will look at an SEC team off to an uncharacteristically poor start. With their overtime loss to the Florida Gators, the Georgia Bulldogs fell to 4-5. This week's question is:
When was the last time Georgia started 4-5 or worse?Leave your answer in the comments section. The answer will be revealed next Wednesday when a new question is asked.
For more trivia questions, visit the Trivia page.
Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Heisman Hopefuls: Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley Eliminated
Monday Musings: LaMichael James is the Oregon Ducks’ Secret to Success
College Football Haven Top 25, Week 9, 2010
Poll Results: Should Auburn be the BCS number 1?
Weekly Predictions/Game of the Week
The Michigan Wolverines Should Retain Rich Rodriguez In 2011
Monday, October 25, 2010
Monday Musings: BCS = Broken Championship System
After another fantastic set of games this weekend for college football, here are my 10 thoughts for Week 8.
1. BCS = Broken Championship System. Two out of the three components in the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) are human polls—the USA Today Coaches poll and the Harris Interactive Poll. This has been done with the expressed intent to give the human element more control over the top teams than the computer element. The Oregon Ducks have been number one in each of these polls the last two weeks, yet Oregon is not number one in the BCS, for the second consecutive week. Oklahoma was number one last week, and Auburn is number one this week. Someone needs to fix those computers. Even with only one third the weight, they are deciding who is number one.
2. How was this game close? The Auburn Tigers out gained the LSU Tigers 526 to 243 in total offense on Saturday. Why did Auburn have to stop LSU on a fourth down with 3:20 to play to win this game? With 526 yards you should have a lot more points. For example, Oregon “only” needed 582 yards to get 60. Why couldn’t Auburn muster more than 24?
3. We are legit. The Missouri Tigers (7-0), the Baylor Bears (6-2), and the Syracuse Orangemen (5-2) made this statement Saturday. All had glossy to semi-glossy records, but no one knew how much stock to put into these records. After Missouri beat Oklahoma, Baylor beat #22 Kansas State, and Syracuse beat #20 West Virginia, we all know that they are legitimate leaders in their conferences.
4. Progress in Pullman. The Washington State Cougars still aren’t winning games, but at least they are scoring points and making some of these losses respectable. Just a 10 point loss to Stanford. USC is the only Pac-10 team to beat the Cougars by more than 20. That includes Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona.
5. Worth the wait? Tyrod Taylor is finally starting to play up to his sky high expectations. He is fourth in the nation in pass efficiency with a 171.1 rating—this is by far the highest rating of his career. He has 527 rushing yards with a 6.2 yard per carry average. Taylor already has 15 TD passes, which is two more than he had all of last season. His completion percentage is up almost 9 percent to 63.9%. He is also on pace for his highest passing yards in a season.
6. Short lived success. Cincinnati and Georgia Tech are the latest teams to join the list of teams having reached a BCS bowl and quickly fell back to middle of the pack or worse in their conferences. Wake Forest, Louisville, Kansas, and Illinois all had a spike in wins to play in a BCS game, but quickly fell below 0.500. After playing in BCS bowls last year, Cincinnati is currently at 3-4, and Georgia Tech is 5-3 with the meat of their schedule still to come.
7. Green means go. Teams with green as a school color rolled up impressive amounts of total offense. Baylor: 682 yards; Hawaii: 614 yards; South Florida: 590 yards; Oregon 582. It was even good for one player named green. Hawaii running back Alex Green ran for 172 yards and four touchdowns on just 14 carries.
8. Yellow means go faster? In driver’s ed I was taught that you are supposed to slow down and stop when the light changes to yellow. When Oregon changed from green to yellow home jerseys, they sped up. The Ducks put up 60 points Thursday night, but what was more impressive is that they did it with only 21:29 possession time. No Oregon drive was longer than 3:37.
9. Three in a row. For the third straight week a number one ranked team lost. Alabama was the first, Ohio State was the second, and now Oklahoma fell. Will Auburn or Oregon make it four this week? Oregon faces a stiffer test with USC, but don’t count out Mississippi from pulling off the unexpected upset of Auburn. No one expected the Rebels to beat number 4 Florida two years ago.
10. Which was worse? Virginia Tech’s loss to James Madison in week two, or Texas’ loss to Iowa State this week? Okay, this is a bit of a stretch to put those two losses in the same sentence, especially since one is a 4-3 FCS team and the other is a 4-4 FBS team. However, after Iowa State lost 68-27 and 52-0 in back-to-back weeks, how do the Longhorns not put up at least 30? Sure you’re coming off an emotional win over Nebraska, but this loss looks really, really bad.
Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Poll Results: Will either #1 Oklahoma or #2 Oregon play in the BCS National Championship Game?
College Football Haven Top 25, Week 8, 2010
Game of the Week: LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers
Game Predictions, Week 8, 2010
Weekly Trivia: LSU starting 7-0
Heisman Trophy Hopefuls, Week 7, 2010
1. BCS = Broken Championship System. Two out of the three components in the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) are human polls—the USA Today Coaches poll and the Harris Interactive Poll. This has been done with the expressed intent to give the human element more control over the top teams than the computer element. The Oregon Ducks have been number one in each of these polls the last two weeks, yet Oregon is not number one in the BCS, for the second consecutive week. Oklahoma was number one last week, and Auburn is number one this week. Someone needs to fix those computers. Even with only one third the weight, they are deciding who is number one.
2. How was this game close? The Auburn Tigers out gained the LSU Tigers 526 to 243 in total offense on Saturday. Why did Auburn have to stop LSU on a fourth down with 3:20 to play to win this game? With 526 yards you should have a lot more points. For example, Oregon “only” needed 582 yards to get 60. Why couldn’t Auburn muster more than 24?
3. We are legit. The Missouri Tigers (7-0), the Baylor Bears (6-2), and the Syracuse Orangemen (5-2) made this statement Saturday. All had glossy to semi-glossy records, but no one knew how much stock to put into these records. After Missouri beat Oklahoma, Baylor beat #22 Kansas State, and Syracuse beat #20 West Virginia, we all know that they are legitimate leaders in their conferences.
4. Progress in Pullman. The Washington State Cougars still aren’t winning games, but at least they are scoring points and making some of these losses respectable. Just a 10 point loss to Stanford. USC is the only Pac-10 team to beat the Cougars by more than 20. That includes Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona.
5. Worth the wait? Tyrod Taylor is finally starting to play up to his sky high expectations. He is fourth in the nation in pass efficiency with a 171.1 rating—this is by far the highest rating of his career. He has 527 rushing yards with a 6.2 yard per carry average. Taylor already has 15 TD passes, which is two more than he had all of last season. His completion percentage is up almost 9 percent to 63.9%. He is also on pace for his highest passing yards in a season.
6. Short lived success. Cincinnati and Georgia Tech are the latest teams to join the list of teams having reached a BCS bowl and quickly fell back to middle of the pack or worse in their conferences. Wake Forest, Louisville, Kansas, and Illinois all had a spike in wins to play in a BCS game, but quickly fell below 0.500. After playing in BCS bowls last year, Cincinnati is currently at 3-4, and Georgia Tech is 5-3 with the meat of their schedule still to come.
7. Green means go. Teams with green as a school color rolled up impressive amounts of total offense. Baylor: 682 yards; Hawaii: 614 yards; South Florida: 590 yards; Oregon 582. It was even good for one player named green. Hawaii running back Alex Green ran for 172 yards and four touchdowns on just 14 carries.
8. Yellow means go faster? In driver’s ed I was taught that you are supposed to slow down and stop when the light changes to yellow. When Oregon changed from green to yellow home jerseys, they sped up. The Ducks put up 60 points Thursday night, but what was more impressive is that they did it with only 21:29 possession time. No Oregon drive was longer than 3:37.
9. Three in a row. For the third straight week a number one ranked team lost. Alabama was the first, Ohio State was the second, and now Oklahoma fell. Will Auburn or Oregon make it four this week? Oregon faces a stiffer test with USC, but don’t count out Mississippi from pulling off the unexpected upset of Auburn. No one expected the Rebels to beat number 4 Florida two years ago.
10. Which was worse? Virginia Tech’s loss to James Madison in week two, or Texas’ loss to Iowa State this week? Okay, this is a bit of a stretch to put those two losses in the same sentence, especially since one is a 4-3 FCS team and the other is a 4-4 FBS team. However, after Iowa State lost 68-27 and 52-0 in back-to-back weeks, how do the Longhorns not put up at least 30? Sure you’re coming off an emotional win over Nebraska, but this loss looks really, really bad.
Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Poll Results: Will either #1 Oklahoma or #2 Oregon play in the BCS National Championship Game?
College Football Haven Top 25, Week 8, 2010
Game of the Week: LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers
Game Predictions, Week 8, 2010
Weekly Trivia: LSU starting 7-0
Heisman Trophy Hopefuls, Week 7, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
Game of the Week: LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers
Tigers will tangle this week to claim the territory at the top of the SEC. The LSU Tigers and Auburn Tigers are both 7-0. Besides the drivers seat in the SEC West, this game has a top 5 ranking ridding on it. If you are Les Miles, then you can either squelch all calls for your job, or have the fire Les Miles talk ramp up again. If you are Cameron Newton, then you can clearly separate yourself as the new Heisman Trophy front runner.
This game is a classic battle of strength against strength: Auburn’s Offense vs. LSU’s Defense. Often the strengths cancel each other out, and the game is decided by the battle between the weaker sides of the ball. The match up of the LSU offense vs. the Auburn defense favor’s LSU. The Bayou Bengals have scored over 28 points four times. The Auburn defense has allowed 24 points or more five times, including 26 to Arkansas State.
One other factor that favors LSU is that LSU had an easier game last week. While Auburn had a track meet with Arkansas, LSU had a scrimmage with McNeese State. Looking at that McNeese State game, I have to believe that LSU has used the last two weeks to get ready for Auburn.
KICKOFF: 3:30 PM (EDT)
TV: CBS
Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Game Predictions, Week 8, 2010
Weekly Trivia: LSU starting 7-0
Heisman Trophy Hopefuls, Week 7, 2010
Monday Musings: 10 Thoughts About Week 7, 2010
Poll Results: Is Denard Robinson still the Heisman Trophy front runner
College Football Haven Top 25, Week 7, 2010
This game is a classic battle of strength against strength: Auburn’s Offense vs. LSU’s Defense. Often the strengths cancel each other out, and the game is decided by the battle between the weaker sides of the ball. The match up of the LSU offense vs. the Auburn defense favor’s LSU. The Bayou Bengals have scored over 28 points four times. The Auburn defense has allowed 24 points or more five times, including 26 to Arkansas State.
One other factor that favors LSU is that LSU had an easier game last week. While Auburn had a track meet with Arkansas, LSU had a scrimmage with McNeese State. Looking at that McNeese State game, I have to believe that LSU has used the last two weeks to get ready for Auburn.
KICKOFF: 3:30 PM (EDT)
TV: CBS
Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Game Predictions, Week 8, 2010
Weekly Trivia: LSU starting 7-0
Heisman Trophy Hopefuls, Week 7, 2010
Monday Musings: 10 Thoughts About Week 7, 2010
Poll Results: Is Denard Robinson still the Heisman Trophy front runner
College Football Haven Top 25, Week 7, 2010
Monday, October 18, 2010
Monday Musings: 10 Thoughts About Week 7, 2010
College football did not disappoint this weekend. More upsets, more (un)Heisman moments, and more controversy--the BCS standings are out. After all the weekend action, here are my Monday Musings.
1. Dream Seasons Done. The Nebraska Cornhuskers, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Nevada Wolf Pack all saw hopes of undefeated seasons erased. It will take a lot of help from others for Nebraska and Ohio State to make it to the BCS National Championship game now.
2. The WAC is no walk in the park. Nevada’s loss to Hawaii shows that not just anyone can run the table in the WAC, at least not this year. If Boise State does end up undefeated, they will have beaten 3 quality conference opponents: Hawaii, Nevada, and Fresno State.
3. Wish you were here. On his way home Saturday night, Urban Meyer should have picked up two of these familiar post cards and sent one to Dan Mullen (Mississippi State head coach/former Florida offensive coordinator) and the other to Cameron Newton (Auburn QB/former Florida QB).
4. Should we really be surprised? Sure, Nebraska had the emotion of playing for revenge, and Texas had lost its last two games, but think about it. Texas was coming off a bye. The Texas defense is equal to, if not greater than, the vaunted Black shirts. Nebraska has been less than stellar at times (South Dakota State, 17-3; Idaho, 38-17). Cornhusker QB Taylor Martinez is just a freshman. As good as he has been, freshmen are still freshmen.
5. 120-27. Iowa State has been outscored by almost 100 points the last two weeks. The Cyclones have yielded one point per minute of play, and 1.75 points per minute that the opposing team’s offense is on the field.
6. Thank you. Michigan State needs to send one of these cards to Wisconsin. The Spartans don’t play Ohio State so the only chance for Michigan State to win the Big Ten outright, finish higher in the BCS standings than Ohio State, and get the conference’s automatic BCS bid was for someone to beat Ohio State. Wisconsin was happy to oblige.
7. Watch out for the Wildcats. The Kentucky Wildcats that is. They took Auburn to the wire last week. This week they upset South Carolina. Georgia and Mississippi State are their next two opponents. Kentucky has assumed the spoiler role and they can spoil both opponents’ seasons with a win in each game.
8. Good news/bad news. The good news during the Oregon Ducks’ bye week was that even without playing the voters moved them up to number one in the rankings. The bad news is that LaMichael James went from being the second leading rusher in the nation to the fifth. Vai Taua, Nevada, Bilal Powell, Louisville, and Cameron Newton, Auburn, all moved ahead of James.
9. Watch out Michael Crabtree, I mean Trevor Insley (Nevada). Insley set the NCAA single season receiving yards record in 1999 with 2,060 (Crabtree had 1,962 in 2008). After 190 yard and 207 yard receiving games in back-to-back weeks, Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon is on pace for 1,910 yards, and that would be with only 114 receptions. Both Crabtree and Insley had 134.
10. Is Baylor bowl bound? The Baylor Bears are one win away from qualifying for a bowl, the first in program history since 1994. They have a hard road to travel for win number six: Kansas State, at Oklahoma State, at Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.
1. Dream Seasons Done. The Nebraska Cornhuskers, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Nevada Wolf Pack all saw hopes of undefeated seasons erased. It will take a lot of help from others for Nebraska and Ohio State to make it to the BCS National Championship game now.
2. The WAC is no walk in the park. Nevada’s loss to Hawaii shows that not just anyone can run the table in the WAC, at least not this year. If Boise State does end up undefeated, they will have beaten 3 quality conference opponents: Hawaii, Nevada, and Fresno State.
3. Wish you were here. On his way home Saturday night, Urban Meyer should have picked up two of these familiar post cards and sent one to Dan Mullen (Mississippi State head coach/former Florida offensive coordinator) and the other to Cameron Newton (Auburn QB/former Florida QB).
4. Should we really be surprised? Sure, Nebraska had the emotion of playing for revenge, and Texas had lost its last two games, but think about it. Texas was coming off a bye. The Texas defense is equal to, if not greater than, the vaunted Black shirts. Nebraska has been less than stellar at times (South Dakota State, 17-3; Idaho, 38-17). Cornhusker QB Taylor Martinez is just a freshman. As good as he has been, freshmen are still freshmen.
5. 120-27. Iowa State has been outscored by almost 100 points the last two weeks. The Cyclones have yielded one point per minute of play, and 1.75 points per minute that the opposing team’s offense is on the field.
6. Thank you. Michigan State needs to send one of these cards to Wisconsin. The Spartans don’t play Ohio State so the only chance for Michigan State to win the Big Ten outright, finish higher in the BCS standings than Ohio State, and get the conference’s automatic BCS bid was for someone to beat Ohio State. Wisconsin was happy to oblige.
7. Watch out for the Wildcats. The Kentucky Wildcats that is. They took Auburn to the wire last week. This week they upset South Carolina. Georgia and Mississippi State are their next two opponents. Kentucky has assumed the spoiler role and they can spoil both opponents’ seasons with a win in each game.
8. Good news/bad news. The good news during the Oregon Ducks’ bye week was that even without playing the voters moved them up to number one in the rankings. The bad news is that LaMichael James went from being the second leading rusher in the nation to the fifth. Vai Taua, Nevada, Bilal Powell, Louisville, and Cameron Newton, Auburn, all moved ahead of James.
9. Watch out Michael Crabtree, I mean Trevor Insley (Nevada). Insley set the NCAA single season receiving yards record in 1999 with 2,060 (Crabtree had 1,962 in 2008). After 190 yard and 207 yard receiving games in back-to-back weeks, Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon is on pace for 1,910 yards, and that would be with only 114 receptions. Both Crabtree and Insley had 134.
10. Is Baylor bowl bound? The Baylor Bears are one win away from qualifying for a bowl, the first in program history since 1994. They have a hard road to travel for win number six: Kansas State, at Oklahoma State, at Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Monday Musings: 10 Thoughts About Week 5
Week 5 was supposed to be another exciting week of top 10 games and the Red River Rivalry. Conference schedules started to be in full force, too. The top 10 games fizzled, but the conference play sizzled. Here are this week’s Monday Musings.
1. The SEC is officially down. The preview of the SEC championship game was a very lopsided 31-6 blowout. Georgia is 1-4. LSU is in contention for the title “worst 5-0 team.” Ole Miss lost to Jacksonville State. Tennessee squeaked past UAB in overtime. In a year that Alabama had to replace virtually its entire defense, they look to be tested only twice (Arkansas and Auburn), and that is with six conference teams having two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide.
2. The torch is officially passed. Tim Tebow was king of college football for the last three years. Everyone was star struck with the quarterback in Gainesville. He accumulated eye popping offensive stats. With Tebow off to the NFL, the torch has been passed to Denard Robinson. Get ready for a three year love fest with the sophomore quarterback in Ann Arbor. Robinson accounted for 5 TDs on Saturday as he passed for nearly 300 yards and ran for over 200 more. On the season he has a 179 pass efficiency rating and leads the nation in rushing (908 yards) by nearly 200 yards!
3. The worst 5-0 team. LSU makes a strong push for this title, but Northwestern definitely takes the cake. The Wildcats biggest win is 37-3 over Illinois State. The rest of the wins are one point over Minnesota (1-4), five points over Central Michigan (2-3), 17 points over Rice (1-4), and two points over Vanderbilt (1-3). Got a problem with this Northwestern? Well, you have a chance to show me something October 23 against Michigan State.
4. What is your favorite color? The Temple Owls love the color brown. With running back Bernard Pierce out with an ankle sprain, Matt Brown picked up the slack and carried 28 times for 226 yards and 4 TDs. Temple needed every yard to beat Army 42-35 and move to 4-1 on the year.
5. The warning light better be on. With the conference schedule swinging into full force, some top teams better have taken notice to what happened Saturday, or they will not be among the ranks of the unbeatens much longer. Ohio State struggled to beat Illinois. They better shape things up in Columbus before they face the likes of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. LSU barely escaped Tennessee in a game best described as a “comedy of errors.” Oklahoma, congratulations on finally beating Texas. It wasn’t pretty, but you did it. Now, get back to work so you don’t lose to a Big 12 North team.
6. Gutsiest call. Chip Kelly reached into the Sean Payton bag of tricks and used an onsides kick to get back in the game against Stanford. Down 21-10 early in the second quarter following a 29-yard TD pass by Darron Thomas, Oregon recovered an onsides kick and drove down to make it a four point game.
7. Hear come the Hokies and Beavers. We all knew that Virginia Tech and Oregon State were slow starting teams. Much to the satisfaction of Boise, Idaho, both teams are ramping up their speed. Virginia Tech is on a three game win streak after downing previously undefeated North Carolina State, 41-30. The Hokies are 2-0 and first in the Coastal division of the ACC. Oregon State got a solid win against Arizona State to move to 2-2, but isn’t that what we all expected? Remember those two losses are to top 5 teams. Oregon State is ready to play the spoiler role in the Pac-10 and if they play their cards right, they will find themselves in Pasadena.
8. The worst FBS team. While some teams have been astonishingly good and fun to watch, others have been atrociously bad and painful to watch. The sad part is deciding the worst college football team is harder than choosing the worst 5-0 team. In the end, the winner (or loser) is New Mexico. Whether it is Oregon or UNLV, New Mexico has not been competitive in any of their games.
9. Doomed to fail? After Gene Chizik was hired by Auburn, all the experts and pundits said Chizik was in a situation where it was impossible to succeed. He had a 5-19 record at Iowa State in two years. The public backlash was huge. Charles Barkley even got mixed up in it. Eighteen games, a 13-5 record, a top 10 ranking, a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, and the Chizik hire appears to have paid off.
10. No surprise this time. The last two years, Iowa has surprised everyone and knocked off an undefeated Penn State team. The Hawkeye’s 24-3 win over the Nittany Lions this weekend came as no surprise to anyone. Penn State is reloading on offense and Iowa is expected to push Ohio State for the Big Ten title.
For the results to last week's opinion poll, click here.
For the latest College Football Haven Top 25, click here.
1. The SEC is officially down. The preview of the SEC championship game was a very lopsided 31-6 blowout. Georgia is 1-4. LSU is in contention for the title “worst 5-0 team.” Ole Miss lost to Jacksonville State. Tennessee squeaked past UAB in overtime. In a year that Alabama had to replace virtually its entire defense, they look to be tested only twice (Arkansas and Auburn), and that is with six conference teams having two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide.
2. The torch is officially passed. Tim Tebow was king of college football for the last three years. Everyone was star struck with the quarterback in Gainesville. He accumulated eye popping offensive stats. With Tebow off to the NFL, the torch has been passed to Denard Robinson. Get ready for a three year love fest with the sophomore quarterback in Ann Arbor. Robinson accounted for 5 TDs on Saturday as he passed for nearly 300 yards and ran for over 200 more. On the season he has a 179 pass efficiency rating and leads the nation in rushing (908 yards) by nearly 200 yards!
3. The worst 5-0 team. LSU makes a strong push for this title, but Northwestern definitely takes the cake. The Wildcats biggest win is 37-3 over Illinois State. The rest of the wins are one point over Minnesota (1-4), five points over Central Michigan (2-3), 17 points over Rice (1-4), and two points over Vanderbilt (1-3). Got a problem with this Northwestern? Well, you have a chance to show me something October 23 against Michigan State.
4. What is your favorite color? The Temple Owls love the color brown. With running back Bernard Pierce out with an ankle sprain, Matt Brown picked up the slack and carried 28 times for 226 yards and 4 TDs. Temple needed every yard to beat Army 42-35 and move to 4-1 on the year.
5. The warning light better be on. With the conference schedule swinging into full force, some top teams better have taken notice to what happened Saturday, or they will not be among the ranks of the unbeatens much longer. Ohio State struggled to beat Illinois. They better shape things up in Columbus before they face the likes of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. LSU barely escaped Tennessee in a game best described as a “comedy of errors.” Oklahoma, congratulations on finally beating Texas. It wasn’t pretty, but you did it. Now, get back to work so you don’t lose to a Big 12 North team.
6. Gutsiest call. Chip Kelly reached into the Sean Payton bag of tricks and used an onsides kick to get back in the game against Stanford. Down 21-10 early in the second quarter following a 29-yard TD pass by Darron Thomas, Oregon recovered an onsides kick and drove down to make it a four point game.
7. Hear come the Hokies and Beavers. We all knew that Virginia Tech and Oregon State were slow starting teams. Much to the satisfaction of Boise, Idaho, both teams are ramping up their speed. Virginia Tech is on a three game win streak after downing previously undefeated North Carolina State, 41-30. The Hokies are 2-0 and first in the Coastal division of the ACC. Oregon State got a solid win against Arizona State to move to 2-2, but isn’t that what we all expected? Remember those two losses are to top 5 teams. Oregon State is ready to play the spoiler role in the Pac-10 and if they play their cards right, they will find themselves in Pasadena.
8. The worst FBS team. While some teams have been astonishingly good and fun to watch, others have been atrociously bad and painful to watch. The sad part is deciding the worst college football team is harder than choosing the worst 5-0 team. In the end, the winner (or loser) is New Mexico. Whether it is Oregon or UNLV, New Mexico has not been competitive in any of their games.
9. Doomed to fail? After Gene Chizik was hired by Auburn, all the experts and pundits said Chizik was in a situation where it was impossible to succeed. He had a 5-19 record at Iowa State in two years. The public backlash was huge. Charles Barkley even got mixed up in it. Eighteen games, a 13-5 record, a top 10 ranking, a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, and the Chizik hire appears to have paid off.
10. No surprise this time. The last two years, Iowa has surprised everyone and knocked off an undefeated Penn State team. The Hawkeye’s 24-3 win over the Nittany Lions this weekend came as no surprise to anyone. Penn State is reloading on offense and Iowa is expected to push Ohio State for the Big Ten title.
For the results to last week's opinion poll, click here.
For the latest College Football Haven Top 25, click here.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Boise State Broncos: How to Guarantee A Spot in the BCS Title Game
Dear Boise State Broncos,
Congratulations on a 3-0 start that includes wins over your two toughest opponents. As a college football fan for over two decades, I am aware of your plight to play for a national championship. Boise State is a small school with much less tradition, fans, and money. You have to fight for the more established members of college football to recognize and validate you. After a great 2009 season that saw you post a perfect 14-0 record and win your second BCS bowl game, you came into 2010 with faint hopes that another perfect season would land you in the BCS National Championship game. With 20 out of 22 starters back from last year, anything less than an undefeated season will be a disappointment.
This year started just as planned. You beat the Virginia Tech Hokies on national television in a hostile environment. Problems started in week two. Virginia Tech lost to a FCS opponent. Now the Hokies don't appear to be the juggernaut so many thought they would be. Poof, that loss by Virginia Tech cost you seven first place votes in the AP poll. Oregon State came to town, and you comfortably won that game. Rather than sing your praises for beating another quality team that figured to contend for an automatic bid in a BCS game, the pundits are downgrading the Beavers. (Never mind that they have played two top 5 teams closer than anyone expected.)
That brings me to the purpose of my letter. I know Virginia Tech's loss and the pessimism about Oregon State are a blow to your cause, but don't despair. I have the formula that will guarantee you a spot in the game January 10, in Glendale.
This year you have some unexpected allies: your conference members. Normally, playing them hurts you more than it helps; this year is different. In fact, even your future Mountain West Conference member Wyoming gives you a boost. WAC teams have played many of the teams you are going to be competing with for one of those two BCS National Championship game spots. As an added bonus, your WAC counterparts have fared reasonably well. The BCS system puts an emphasis on two things: winning games and winning with style. What you need to do is win with more style than those other teams did. Here are the key games:
Wyoming, September 18
One week before (September 11) the Wyoming Cowboys went to Austin, Texas and lost to the Longhorns 34-7. Texas was ranked number 5 at the time and they could be the Big XII champion at the end of the year. The Big XII champion has played in the national title game the last two years. Therefore, you needed to beat Wyoming worse than Texas did, and you did, 51-6. If Texas finishes the year 12-1, your 45 point win over the Cowboys should give you the edge over Texas.
San Jose State, October 16
The San Jose State Spartans did you a double favor. They played number 1 Alabama the opening week (lost 48-3) and number 9 Wisconsin the following week (lost 28-14). Alabama is the favorite to win the SEC, and we all know that the SEC champion has won the last four national championships. The Crimson Tide set a pretty high standard with the 48-3 victory, but it is not unreasonable. You beat SJSU 45-7 last year. You will play the Spartans in San Jose as well. A more stylish road win against San Jose State should help your case. Wisconsin probably won't win the Big Ten, but if they do voters and computers should give you preference if you have a better win against SJSU than the Badgers did.
Hawaii, November 6
The Hawaii Warriors pushed USC in an opening day 49-36 loss. While Oregon and Stanford are getting the attention in the Pac-10 right now, USC is still undefeated. Make sure you beat Hawaii by a minimum of 14 points, but I would recommend you double that to 28.
Idaho, November 12
The most impressive team in the Big XII this year has been number 6 Nebraska. Winning the Big XII championship and finishing undefeated appears a distinct possibility. The Cornhuskers played Idaho on September 11 and won 38-17. A 21-point win. Improving on that seems reasonable. You did beat the Vandals 63-25 last year, which was Idaho's best team since the state's first potato crop.
Nevada, November 26
Worst case scenario, Nevada will be 9-2 when this game is played. The Wolf Pack made waves September 18 when they beat the Cal Bears 52-31. Cal doesn't figure to be a player in the Pac-10 race (although don't rule out a rivalry upset over Stanford), but with this win on their resume and currently a top 25 team, a win over Nevada could count as another quality win.
Utah State, December 4
The Utah State Aggies went into Norman, Oklahoma on September 4, and almost came out winners. The Sooners claimed a narrow 31-24 victory. This is where you can pick up a lot of ground, Broncos. A 30+ point win over Utah State will easily get you the nod over Oklahoma if they are the Big XII champs.
There you have it. Of course, you will want to win all your games by a minimum of two touchdowns, but these five games that you still have to play are the most important ones on your schedule. Win with more style in these games and your spot in the BCS National Championship game is secure.
See you in Glendale.
If you missed College Football Haven's Top 25 this week, click here.
If you missed Monday Musings this week, click here.
If you missed College Football Haven's Heisman Hopefuls this week, click here.
If you missed this week's trivia question, click here.
Congratulations on a 3-0 start that includes wins over your two toughest opponents. As a college football fan for over two decades, I am aware of your plight to play for a national championship. Boise State is a small school with much less tradition, fans, and money. You have to fight for the more established members of college football to recognize and validate you. After a great 2009 season that saw you post a perfect 14-0 record and win your second BCS bowl game, you came into 2010 with faint hopes that another perfect season would land you in the BCS National Championship game. With 20 out of 22 starters back from last year, anything less than an undefeated season will be a disappointment.
This year started just as planned. You beat the Virginia Tech Hokies on national television in a hostile environment. Problems started in week two. Virginia Tech lost to a FCS opponent. Now the Hokies don't appear to be the juggernaut so many thought they would be. Poof, that loss by Virginia Tech cost you seven first place votes in the AP poll. Oregon State came to town, and you comfortably won that game. Rather than sing your praises for beating another quality team that figured to contend for an automatic bid in a BCS game, the pundits are downgrading the Beavers. (Never mind that they have played two top 5 teams closer than anyone expected.)
That brings me to the purpose of my letter. I know Virginia Tech's loss and the pessimism about Oregon State are a blow to your cause, but don't despair. I have the formula that will guarantee you a spot in the game January 10, in Glendale.
This year you have some unexpected allies: your conference members. Normally, playing them hurts you more than it helps; this year is different. In fact, even your future Mountain West Conference member Wyoming gives you a boost. WAC teams have played many of the teams you are going to be competing with for one of those two BCS National Championship game spots. As an added bonus, your WAC counterparts have fared reasonably well. The BCS system puts an emphasis on two things: winning games and winning with style. What you need to do is win with more style than those other teams did. Here are the key games:
Wyoming, September 18
One week before (September 11) the Wyoming Cowboys went to Austin, Texas and lost to the Longhorns 34-7. Texas was ranked number 5 at the time and they could be the Big XII champion at the end of the year. The Big XII champion has played in the national title game the last two years. Therefore, you needed to beat Wyoming worse than Texas did, and you did, 51-6. If Texas finishes the year 12-1, your 45 point win over the Cowboys should give you the edge over Texas.
San Jose State, October 16
The San Jose State Spartans did you a double favor. They played number 1 Alabama the opening week (lost 48-3) and number 9 Wisconsin the following week (lost 28-14). Alabama is the favorite to win the SEC, and we all know that the SEC champion has won the last four national championships. The Crimson Tide set a pretty high standard with the 48-3 victory, but it is not unreasonable. You beat SJSU 45-7 last year. You will play the Spartans in San Jose as well. A more stylish road win against San Jose State should help your case. Wisconsin probably won't win the Big Ten, but if they do voters and computers should give you preference if you have a better win against SJSU than the Badgers did.
Hawaii, November 6
The Hawaii Warriors pushed USC in an opening day 49-36 loss. While Oregon and Stanford are getting the attention in the Pac-10 right now, USC is still undefeated. Make sure you beat Hawaii by a minimum of 14 points, but I would recommend you double that to 28.
Idaho, November 12
The most impressive team in the Big XII this year has been number 6 Nebraska. Winning the Big XII championship and finishing undefeated appears a distinct possibility. The Cornhuskers played Idaho on September 11 and won 38-17. A 21-point win. Improving on that seems reasonable. You did beat the Vandals 63-25 last year, which was Idaho's best team since the state's first potato crop.
Nevada, November 26
Worst case scenario, Nevada will be 9-2 when this game is played. The Wolf Pack made waves September 18 when they beat the Cal Bears 52-31. Cal doesn't figure to be a player in the Pac-10 race (although don't rule out a rivalry upset over Stanford), but with this win on their resume and currently a top 25 team, a win over Nevada could count as another quality win.
Utah State, December 4
The Utah State Aggies went into Norman, Oklahoma on September 4, and almost came out winners. The Sooners claimed a narrow 31-24 victory. This is where you can pick up a lot of ground, Broncos. A 30+ point win over Utah State will easily get you the nod over Oklahoma if they are the Big XII champs.
There you have it. Of course, you will want to win all your games by a minimum of two touchdowns, but these five games that you still have to play are the most important ones on your schedule. Win with more style in these games and your spot in the BCS National Championship game is secure.
See you in Glendale.
If you missed College Football Haven's Top 25 this week, click here.
If you missed Monday Musings this week, click here.
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Monday, September 27, 2010
Monday Musings: 10 Thoughts About Week 4
The first month of the 2010 college football season finished this weekend, and it showed. The games got tighter and the stakes have risen, but the fun and excitement keeps coming. Here are this week’s musings.
1. In the Pitts. The Pittsburgh Panthers were the clear favorites in the Big East this preseason. Now the Panthers sit at 1-2. The lone win came against New Hampshire. The second loss came at home to Miami, 31-3. Dion Lewis has gone from fab-freshman to sub-par-sophomore. Lewis is averaging less than 50 yards a game and just three yards even per rush.
2. Weapon of choice: the pistol. Nevada made the pistol offense famous, and they are riding its popularity, and success, to a 4-0 record and top 25 ranking. The Wolf Pack isn’t the only team using it these days. Alabama used the pistol regularly against Arkansas this weekend, and UCLA used the pistol to shoot down Bevo, 34-12.
3. How did Bowling Green manage to win a game? Michigan played musical chairs at quarterback, but the offense didn’t skip a beat. Denard Robinson and Tate Forcier both sustained injuries, but Michigan still rolled up 721 yards total offense and put 65 points on the board. Robinson had 128 yards rushing on five carries, Forcier was a perfect 12-12 passing the ball, and Michigan converted 10 of 12 third downs. The only way to win is to play a team with a worse defense or play a team with no offense, but Bowling Green does have one win on the year (44-28 over Marshall).
4. Who is better: Pac-10 or SEC? The Pac-10 might be giving the SEC competition for the title “Best Conference in College Football.” With the exception of Washington and Washington State, the Pac-10 is very strong. The other eight teams are a combined 23-8, and all eight losses are to undefeated teams. The Pac-10 has two upsets of top 10 teams to its credit as well.
5. The best QB in the ACC. Russell Wilson, North Carolina State, is asserting himself as the best signal caller in the ACC. Veterans Jacory Harris, Christian Ponder, and Tyrod Taylor were expected to be the cream of the ACC crop this year. Wilson has outplayed them all, to date, and he bested Josh Nesbitt on Saturday. After throwing a pick-6 that closed a 17 point lead to three, Wilson recovered and threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to push the lead back to 10.
6. Mississippi Mud Slide. The Ole Miss Rebels bounced back from an abysmal loss to Vanderbilt to inundate the Fresno State Bulldogs. Jeremiah Masoli was 8-12 passing for 153 yards, and Brandon Boldin ran for 228 yards on just 19 carries. Ole Miss had 578 yards of total offense and scored 55 points.
7. Will this be the year? The Nevada Wolf Pack has not beaten Boise State since 1998. Nevada hasn’t been 4-0 since 1991. They have been close the last few years. When Boise and Nevada meet on November 26, will the Wolf Pack pull of a monumental upset?
8. Good thing conference play is starting. With six teams in the Big 12 undefeated and seven teams in the Big 10 undefeated, it is a good thing that conference play is starting this week. Nothing is better to separate the contenders from the pretenders. We all remember how Michigan fell from 4-0 to miss a bowl last year. With Texas and Iowa not among the unbeaten teams in each conference, it is hard to believe that the win-loss records really reflect how good teams are at this point.
9. Moral victories are multiplying. The Florida International Golden Panthers notched another moral victory this weekend. FIU is 0-3 with a 19-14 loss to Rutgers, a 27-21 loss to Texas A&M, and a 42-28 loss to Maryland. The head coach said they were not going to take satisfaction in these moral victories, but they do represent how far FIU has come. Just two years ago, FIU lost 40-10 to Kansas, and 42-0 to Iowa.
10. Lost or won? Did Alabama win the game against Arkansas, or did the Razorbacks lose it? Arkansas led most of the game. They had a commanding 20-7 lead in the second half. Alabama cut that lead to three with six minutes to play. All Arkansas had to do was hold on to the ball and run the clock out. Not only did they fail to do that, but Ryan Mallett threw an interception on the third play of the drive. This miscue gift wrapped the winning touchdown for Alabama.
For the latest College Football Haven Top 25, click here.
1. In the Pitts. The Pittsburgh Panthers were the clear favorites in the Big East this preseason. Now the Panthers sit at 1-2. The lone win came against New Hampshire. The second loss came at home to Miami, 31-3. Dion Lewis has gone from fab-freshman to sub-par-sophomore. Lewis is averaging less than 50 yards a game and just three yards even per rush.
2. Weapon of choice: the pistol. Nevada made the pistol offense famous, and they are riding its popularity, and success, to a 4-0 record and top 25 ranking. The Wolf Pack isn’t the only team using it these days. Alabama used the pistol regularly against Arkansas this weekend, and UCLA used the pistol to shoot down Bevo, 34-12.
3. How did Bowling Green manage to win a game? Michigan played musical chairs at quarterback, but the offense didn’t skip a beat. Denard Robinson and Tate Forcier both sustained injuries, but Michigan still rolled up 721 yards total offense and put 65 points on the board. Robinson had 128 yards rushing on five carries, Forcier was a perfect 12-12 passing the ball, and Michigan converted 10 of 12 third downs. The only way to win is to play a team with a worse defense or play a team with no offense, but Bowling Green does have one win on the year (44-28 over Marshall).
4. Who is better: Pac-10 or SEC? The Pac-10 might be giving the SEC competition for the title “Best Conference in College Football.” With the exception of Washington and Washington State, the Pac-10 is very strong. The other eight teams are a combined 23-8, and all eight losses are to undefeated teams. The Pac-10 has two upsets of top 10 teams to its credit as well.
5. The best QB in the ACC. Russell Wilson, North Carolina State, is asserting himself as the best signal caller in the ACC. Veterans Jacory Harris, Christian Ponder, and Tyrod Taylor were expected to be the cream of the ACC crop this year. Wilson has outplayed them all, to date, and he bested Josh Nesbitt on Saturday. After throwing a pick-6 that closed a 17 point lead to three, Wilson recovered and threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to push the lead back to 10.
6. Mississippi Mud Slide. The Ole Miss Rebels bounced back from an abysmal loss to Vanderbilt to inundate the Fresno State Bulldogs. Jeremiah Masoli was 8-12 passing for 153 yards, and Brandon Boldin ran for 228 yards on just 19 carries. Ole Miss had 578 yards of total offense and scored 55 points.
7. Will this be the year? The Nevada Wolf Pack has not beaten Boise State since 1998. Nevada hasn’t been 4-0 since 1991. They have been close the last few years. When Boise and Nevada meet on November 26, will the Wolf Pack pull of a monumental upset?
8. Good thing conference play is starting. With six teams in the Big 12 undefeated and seven teams in the Big 10 undefeated, it is a good thing that conference play is starting this week. Nothing is better to separate the contenders from the pretenders. We all remember how Michigan fell from 4-0 to miss a bowl last year. With Texas and Iowa not among the unbeaten teams in each conference, it is hard to believe that the win-loss records really reflect how good teams are at this point.
9. Moral victories are multiplying. The Florida International Golden Panthers notched another moral victory this weekend. FIU is 0-3 with a 19-14 loss to Rutgers, a 27-21 loss to Texas A&M, and a 42-28 loss to Maryland. The head coach said they were not going to take satisfaction in these moral victories, but they do represent how far FIU has come. Just two years ago, FIU lost 40-10 to Kansas, and 42-0 to Iowa.
10. Lost or won? Did Alabama win the game against Arkansas, or did the Razorbacks lose it? Arkansas led most of the game. They had a commanding 20-7 lead in the second half. Alabama cut that lead to three with six minutes to play. All Arkansas had to do was hold on to the ball and run the clock out. Not only did they fail to do that, but Ryan Mallett threw an interception on the third play of the drive. This miscue gift wrapped the winning touchdown for Alabama.
For the latest College Football Haven Top 25, click here.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Game of the Week: Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks
The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Arkansas Razorbacks have done their part so far to make this game what we all wanted it to be. These two undefeated SEC West teams square off in a game that could decide who plays in Atlanta for the SEC championship, and possibly a shot at the BCS national championship game.
Ryan Mallet has met the high expectations that everyone had for him this year. He is the first quarterback to throw for 1,000 yards, and his 40-yard touchdown pass against Georgia with 15 seconds left won the game last week. Defense was a weakness for the Razorbacks a year ago. The 2010 edition appears to be better, but has it improved enough?
Alabama has improved on offense. Greg McElroy has a pass efficiency rating of 200. The Crimson Tide have three running backs with over 150 yards rushing. The new defense has looked very strong, however, it hasn’t really been tested.
Last year, Alabama overwhelmed Arkansas 35-7. Neither Mark Ingram nor Trent Richardson had a big game running the ball. It was McElroy having the best game of his short career throwing for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Crimson Tide shutdown the Arkansas offense that had averaged over 500 yards per game in the first two games of 2009.
Alabama has won its last 18 conference opening games. This is Arkansas’ best opportunity to get a win against Alabama. Ryan Mallet may be gone next year, the game is in Fayetteville this year, and Alabama has an untested defense. I expect this game to go down to the wire.
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Ryan Mallet has met the high expectations that everyone had for him this year. He is the first quarterback to throw for 1,000 yards, and his 40-yard touchdown pass against Georgia with 15 seconds left won the game last week. Defense was a weakness for the Razorbacks a year ago. The 2010 edition appears to be better, but has it improved enough?
Alabama has improved on offense. Greg McElroy has a pass efficiency rating of 200. The Crimson Tide have three running backs with over 150 yards rushing. The new defense has looked very strong, however, it hasn’t really been tested.
Last year, Alabama overwhelmed Arkansas 35-7. Neither Mark Ingram nor Trent Richardson had a big game running the ball. It was McElroy having the best game of his short career throwing for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Crimson Tide shutdown the Arkansas offense that had averaged over 500 yards per game in the first two games of 2009.
Alabama has won its last 18 conference opening games. This is Arkansas’ best opportunity to get a win against Alabama. Ryan Mallet may be gone next year, the game is in Fayetteville this year, and Alabama has an untested defense. I expect this game to go down to the wire.
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Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Weekly Trivia: Conference Charter Members
Last week's trivia question, "Before this four year run started in 2006, how many years did it take the SEC to win four national championships?" (In other words, if you start with 2005, how many years do you have to go back until the SEC has won four national championships?) was correctly answered by an anonymous visitor. An SEC team won the national championship in 2003 (LSU), 1998 (Tennessee), 1996 (Florida), and 1992 (Alabama). In total, that makes 14 years. However, as you may recall, the 2003 title was a split national championship (AP voted USC number 1). You have to go back to 1980 (Georgia) for the SEC to have four AP national championships.
Moving on, this summer we had some changes announced regarding conference affiliation. Nebraska will make the move to the Big Ten next year. This week's question is:
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Moving on, this summer we had some changes announced regarding conference affiliation. Nebraska will make the move to the Big Ten next year. This week's question is:
What 7 schools were the charter members of the Western Conference (which evolved into the Big Ten) in 1896?Leave your answer in the comments section. The answer will be revealed next Wednesday when a new question is asked.
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Monday, September 6, 2010
College Football 2010: 10 Musings From Week 1
The 2010 college football season got off to a great start this weekend. It had everything we have come to expect: upsets, blowouts, new players making a name for themselves, new players struggling, old stars are still shining, some of the good teams are still very good, some of the bad teams are still very bad, and unexpected events happened. Here are 10 musings looking back on week one.
1. Biggest Upset: Jacksonville State 49, Ole Miss 48. I wasn't a very good weekend for the SEC (overrated?), and this game was the worst. This is Jacksonville State from the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). We aren't talking about App. State, the two time defending FCS national champion who went on to win their third national championship in a row the year they beat Michigan. Jacksonville State was 8-3 last year, they didn't make the FCS playoffs, and they don't have Ryan Perrilloux this year either.
2. How did that happen? Toledo lost to Arizona 41-2. Maybe I am just weird, but I look at that score and wonder how Toledo was able to get the safety. Safeties are a rarity in football, and for a team to get a safety is a major accomplishment. An accomplishment that you don't expect from a team that is being outscored 41-0 otherwise.
3. I told you so. Just remember you saw it here first. While everyone had Florida ranked in their preseason top 5. I had the Gators number 16. Honestly, I don't know if they even deserve that ranking after struggling so mightily against Miami (OH).
4. Should we be concerned? Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC were supposed to win by hefty margins, and the starters should have rested most of the second half. Instead, they all played well into the fourth quarter.
5. Didn't see that coming. Oregon 72-0 over New Mexico. Sure I had Oregon winning, but who expected 59 points in the first half and 72 at game's end? With the LaMichael James out, Jeremiah Masoli gone, I thought Oregon would play more like the four teams above. I guess the real question is, did I underestimate Oregon or is New Mexico still that bad?
6. Who is that guy? When Middle Tennessee State lost Dwight Dasher less than a week before their first game, it was supposed to be a fatal blow. Dasher was going to be the guy that put the Sun Belt Conference on the map. Rather than fold and give Minnesota an easy win, Logan Kilgore stepped in and put up impressive numbers as Middle Tennessee State actually had the lead going into the fourth quarter.
7. We want our coach back. Cincinnati lost to Fresno State 28-14. After a perfect regular season a year ago, the Bearcats already have a blemish. Meanwhile, former Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly was in South Bend celebrating his first win with Notre Dame.
8. Don't get too excited. Wake Forest won its first game 53-13. That is cause to celebrate after a 5-7 season last year, right? Not so fast. That 40 point win came against Presbyterian, an FCS team that was 0-11 in 2009. Let's wait and see how the Demon Deacons do against Stanford in two weeks.
9. That must have felt good. Year 3 for Rich Rodriguez at Michigan started with a 30-10 win over a Connecticut team expected to contend in the Big East. For a man needing a big year, this was the right way to start.
10. Ten and counting. After opening 2009 with three straight wins, Colorado State then dropped their next nine. The 24-3 loss on Saturday to Colorado makes it 10 consecutive losses and counting.
1. Biggest Upset: Jacksonville State 49, Ole Miss 48. I wasn't a very good weekend for the SEC (overrated?), and this game was the worst. This is Jacksonville State from the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). We aren't talking about App. State, the two time defending FCS national champion who went on to win their third national championship in a row the year they beat Michigan. Jacksonville State was 8-3 last year, they didn't make the FCS playoffs, and they don't have Ryan Perrilloux this year either.
2. How did that happen? Toledo lost to Arizona 41-2. Maybe I am just weird, but I look at that score and wonder how Toledo was able to get the safety. Safeties are a rarity in football, and for a team to get a safety is a major accomplishment. An accomplishment that you don't expect from a team that is being outscored 41-0 otherwise.
3. I told you so. Just remember you saw it here first. While everyone had Florida ranked in their preseason top 5. I had the Gators number 16. Honestly, I don't know if they even deserve that ranking after struggling so mightily against Miami (OH).
4. Should we be concerned? Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC were supposed to win by hefty margins, and the starters should have rested most of the second half. Instead, they all played well into the fourth quarter.
5. Didn't see that coming. Oregon 72-0 over New Mexico. Sure I had Oregon winning, but who expected 59 points in the first half and 72 at game's end? With the LaMichael James out, Jeremiah Masoli gone, I thought Oregon would play more like the four teams above. I guess the real question is, did I underestimate Oregon or is New Mexico still that bad?
6. Who is that guy? When Middle Tennessee State lost Dwight Dasher less than a week before their first game, it was supposed to be a fatal blow. Dasher was going to be the guy that put the Sun Belt Conference on the map. Rather than fold and give Minnesota an easy win, Logan Kilgore stepped in and put up impressive numbers as Middle Tennessee State actually had the lead going into the fourth quarter.
7. We want our coach back. Cincinnati lost to Fresno State 28-14. After a perfect regular season a year ago, the Bearcats already have a blemish. Meanwhile, former Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly was in South Bend celebrating his first win with Notre Dame.
8. Don't get too excited. Wake Forest won its first game 53-13. That is cause to celebrate after a 5-7 season last year, right? Not so fast. That 40 point win came against Presbyterian, an FCS team that was 0-11 in 2009. Let's wait and see how the Demon Deacons do against Stanford in two weeks.
9. That must have felt good. Year 3 for Rich Rodriguez at Michigan started with a 30-10 win over a Connecticut team expected to contend in the Big East. For a man needing a big year, this was the right way to start.
10. Ten and counting. After opening 2009 with three straight wins, Colorado State then dropped their next nine. The 24-3 loss on Saturday to Colorado makes it 10 consecutive losses and counting.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Game Predictions, Week 1
The game predictions each week will be pretty simple and straight forward. I will select around 20-25 games that I find interesting, but that also represent each FBS conference. Feel free to chime in with your picks, or at least where you agree or disagree. If I leave out a game that really interests you, throw out your prediction for that.
Thursday, September 2
Pittsburgh at Utah: 24-21, Pitt
Northern Illinois at Iowa State: 21-14, Northern Illinois
Florida Atlantic at UAB: 17-10, UAB
Southern Mississippi at South Carolina: 31-24, South Carolina
USC at Hawaii: 38-7, USC
Minnesota at Middle Tennessee: 31-10, Minnesota
Friday, September 3
Arizona at Toledo: 21-17, Arizona
Saturday, September 4
TCU vs. Oregon State: 24-13 TCU
LSU vs. North Carolina: 28-14, LSU
Illinois vs. Missouri: 31-28, Missouri
Colorado vs. Colorado State: 21-13, Colorado
Kentucky at Louisville: 28-20, Kentucky
North Texas at Clemson: 34-13, Clemson
Troy at Bowling Green: 24-10, Bowling Green
New Mexico at Oregon: 28-10, Oregon
Purdue at Notre Dame: 21-13 Notre Dame
Memphis at Mississippi State: 31-10, Mississippi State
Cincinnati at Fresno State: 24-21, Fresno State
Western Michigan at Michigan State: 24-10, Michigan State
Connecticut at Michigan: 31-30, Michigan
Sunday, September 5
SMU at Texas Tech: 34-27, SMU
Monday, September 6
Virginia Tech vs. Boise State: 21-17, Boise State
Navy vs. Maryland: 31-17, Navy
If you missed College Football Haven's Top 25 this week, click here.
If you missed College Football Haven's Heisman Hopefuls this week, click here.
If you missed this week's trivia question, click here.
Thursday, September 2
Pittsburgh at Utah: 24-21, Pitt
Northern Illinois at Iowa State: 21-14, Northern Illinois
Florida Atlantic at UAB: 17-10, UAB
Southern Mississippi at South Carolina: 31-24, South Carolina
USC at Hawaii: 38-7, USC
Minnesota at Middle Tennessee: 31-10, Minnesota
Friday, September 3
Arizona at Toledo: 21-17, Arizona
Saturday, September 4
TCU vs. Oregon State: 24-13 TCU
LSU vs. North Carolina: 28-14, LSU
Illinois vs. Missouri: 31-28, Missouri
Colorado vs. Colorado State: 21-13, Colorado
Kentucky at Louisville: 28-20, Kentucky
North Texas at Clemson: 34-13, Clemson
Troy at Bowling Green: 24-10, Bowling Green
New Mexico at Oregon: 28-10, Oregon
Purdue at Notre Dame: 21-13 Notre Dame
Memphis at Mississippi State: 31-10, Mississippi State
Cincinnati at Fresno State: 24-21, Fresno State
Western Michigan at Michigan State: 24-10, Michigan State
Connecticut at Michigan: 31-30, Michigan
Sunday, September 5
SMU at Texas Tech: 34-27, SMU
Monday, September 6
Virginia Tech vs. Boise State: 21-17, Boise State
Navy vs. Maryland: 31-17, Navy
If you missed College Football Haven's Top 25 this week, click here.
If you missed College Football Haven's Heisman Hopefuls this week, click here.
If you missed this week's trivia question, click here.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Weekly Trivia: The SEC and National Championships
The SEC is on a very, very impressive run winning the last four national championships. This week's trivia question is:
If you missed the College Football Haven Top 25, click here.
If you missed the College Football Haven Heisman Hopefuls, click here.
"Before this four year run started in 2006, how many years did it take the SEC to win four national championships?" (In other words, if you start with 2005, how many years do you have to go back until the SEC has won four national championships?)Leave your answer in the comments section. The answer will be revealed next Wednesday when a new question is asked.
If you missed the College Football Haven Top 25, click here.
If you missed the College Football Haven Heisman Hopefuls, click here.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Souteastern Conference (SEC) Football Season Preview 2010
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) has dominated college football the last four years. Here are five questions to get a quick glimpse of what SEC football will look like in 2010.
1. Who will win the conference? Alabama Crimson Tide. Even though Alabama lost several key defenders to the NFL, so did Florida. Florida also lost a lot on the offensive side. Alabama did not. Nick Saban faces the challenge of keeping his team hungry and focused after reaching the pinnacle last year.
2. Who is the top returning player? Mark Ingram, Alabama. How can the answer to this question be anyone but the reigning Heisman Trophy winner? In case you forgot, Ingram ran for 1,658 yards (6.1 yards per carry) and scored 20 touchdowns (17 rushing, 3 receiving) in 2009. In nine games the Heisman Trophy winner ran for more than 100 yards.
3. Which team will be the most improved? Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs were 5-7 in Dan Mullen's first year. Mississippi State ended the year on a positive note by beating Ole Miss, 41-27. That momentum will carry over into this year and people will be talking about the Bulldogs at the end of the year.
4. What will be the biggest surprise? The SEC champion will not play in the BCS title game. After an unprecedented four year run, the SEC champion will be back in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama will not be undefeated at season's end, and that will keep them out. At least two other teams will be undefeated and claim the top two spots in the final BCS standings.
5. Which coach is on the hottest seat? Les Miles, LSU. Everyone in the Bayou is getting restless after the 2007 National Championship has been followed up with back-to-back single digit win seasons. Miles didn't even receive much credit for the national championship three years ago, since he won that year with Nick Saban's recruits. Now is the time for Miles to deliver with the players that he has recruited, otherwise, he will be shown the door out.
1. Who will win the conference? Alabama Crimson Tide. Even though Alabama lost several key defenders to the NFL, so did Florida. Florida also lost a lot on the offensive side. Alabama did not. Nick Saban faces the challenge of keeping his team hungry and focused after reaching the pinnacle last year.
2. Who is the top returning player? Mark Ingram, Alabama. How can the answer to this question be anyone but the reigning Heisman Trophy winner? In case you forgot, Ingram ran for 1,658 yards (6.1 yards per carry) and scored 20 touchdowns (17 rushing, 3 receiving) in 2009. In nine games the Heisman Trophy winner ran for more than 100 yards.
3. Which team will be the most improved? Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs were 5-7 in Dan Mullen's first year. Mississippi State ended the year on a positive note by beating Ole Miss, 41-27. That momentum will carry over into this year and people will be talking about the Bulldogs at the end of the year.
4. What will be the biggest surprise? The SEC champion will not play in the BCS title game. After an unprecedented four year run, the SEC champion will be back in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama will not be undefeated at season's end, and that will keep them out. At least two other teams will be undefeated and claim the top two spots in the final BCS standings.
5. Which coach is on the hottest seat? Les Miles, LSU. Everyone in the Bayou is getting restless after the 2007 National Championship has been followed up with back-to-back single digit win seasons. Miles didn't even receive much credit for the national championship three years ago, since he won that year with Nick Saban's recruits. Now is the time for Miles to deliver with the players that he has recruited, otherwise, he will be shown the door out.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
2010 College Football Preview: 10 Questions
The 2010 college football season will kick off in just two weeks! College Football Haven has the top 10 questions for 2010, plus one bonus question for making it to the end.
1. Is this Joe Paterno’s last ride? Last year we saw the departure of the legendary Bobby Bowden. Now that Bowden is gone, Joe Pa is assured that when he retires he will have more wins than any FBS coach. With 394 wins to his name, he should eclipse the 400 win plateau this year. These two factors just might be enough to get him to finally hang it up after 45 years.
2. Will an SEC team win the National Championship? It has happened for the last four years. Whether the SEC champion has been undefeated or has had two losses, they have made it to the BCS national championship game and come out the victor every time. The SEC championship could be a rematch of Florida and Alabama. If this is the case, I don’t expect either team to be undefeated, so whether the winner makes it to Glendale will depend on how the other automatic qualifying (AQ) champions fare. Two undefeated teams (Ohio State and Oklahoma, perhaps) and the SEC champion will be on the outside looking in. If only one AQ champion is undefeated and so is Boise State or TCU, then the SEC champ probably gets in.
3. Will Boise State or TCU play in the National Championship game? They are both in a very favorable position starting at numbers 5 and 7, respectively, in the USA Today preseason top 25. After the way they played last year, if one of them finishes undefeated, and no other team in the nation is undefeated, then I like their chances to be in the BCS top two. If one AQ champion is undefeated, then Boise State and TCU will have to fight for that second spot. Both teams have earned a shot to prove themselves if they are undefeated, but in the end, they probably won’t make it over a one loss SEC champion.
4. Is this Rich Rodriguez’s break through year at Michigan? With his track record at Tulane and West Virginia, many expected the Wolverines to be a force in the Big Ten last year. Instead, Michigan dropped 7 of 8 league games and finished 5-7. It was a good strategic move by Michigan to hire Rodriguez, but if he doesn’t get things done this year, he is probably gone. That being said, I think Michigan will be back in a bowl and Rich Rod will be on the sidelines in 2011.
5. Will SMU continue its resurgence? While Rodriguez continued to struggle in his second year, June Jones was flourishing in his second year at SMU. The Mustanges went from one win to 8, and slaughtered Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl. Kyle Padron returns at quarterback so I fully expect the Mustangs to gallop in the lead pack of Conference USA and could win the conference in a photo finish.
6. Are select teams auditioning for invitations to join better conferences? The Big Ten doesn’t appear to be satisfied with 12 teams. Pitt, Rutgers, Maryland, and maybe even Virginia are prime candidates. The Big XII may be happy with 10 teams for now, but it won’t be long before they are back to 12. The Memphis faithful are hungry to make the jump to big time football. BYU has made it clear that they are looking for something better than the Mountain West Conference. These teams may find that the way they play on Saturdays was the difference maker in whether they got an invite or not.
7. Can Jeremiah Masoli redeem himself? With a second chance at Ole Miss, the former Oregon Duck may get the last quack. I find it hard to imagine that he won’t be the Rebels starting quarterback. How quickly he can grasp the offense and gel with his teammates will determine his success. He will have a respectable year, but what will determine the winner in this situation will be how well Oregon does without him.
8. Will Jake Locker live up to the hype? For three years we have heard about the phenomenal athleticism and potential of Jake Locker. This summer he went back east on a whirlwind media tour to promote his Heisman Trophy candidacy. Many consider him to be the future number one draft pick in the 2011 NFL draft. With all this fanfare you would think that his college career resembled that of Tim Tebow. On the contrary, Locker has not played in a bowl, nor has he passed for more than 3,000 yards in a season. I predict that Locker will break both these trends this year. Locker and Washington are poised for a breakout year in Steve Sarkisian’s second year as head coach.
9. Who will represent the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl? No conference race is more wide open than the Pac-10. USC has a bowl ban, so even if they win the conference, they won’t play in the Rose Bowl. Oregon had a good chance to make a repeat showing until they lost Masoli and had a rash of other off the field issues that affected the team. Stanford is making strides, but replacing Tody Gerhart will keep the Rose Bowl out of reach. Same goes for Cal without Jahvid Best. Washington and UCLA are dark horses that I wouldn’t count out. In the end, this is Oregon State’s year. The Beavers will get off to a typically slow start, but when the conference games roll around Jaquizz Rodgers and company will be ready.
10. Will Case Keenum break the NCAA record for career passing yards? With back-to-back 5,000 yard passing seasons and 12,950 yards to his credit, Keenum is only 4,123 yards away from breaking Timmy Chang’s record (17,072). Barring injury, Keenum will break this record with ease. The better question might be how high will he push this mark?
Bonus: How will they react? With the way 2009 ended and the events during the offseason, I am curious to know how several teams will react to what happened. Their reactions will go a long way in shaping how the 2010 season plays out.
• USC: Pete Carroll left for the NFL, and the NCAA finally ruled in the Reggie Bush case. With no bowl game to play for and some players transferring, how will the men of Troy react? USC has a lot of pride, and, like him or not, Lane Kiffen overachieved last year at Tennessee. I see USC bouncing back from last year’s 9-4 campaign and playing with a chip on their shoulder. Even with Carroll gone, the end result will be typical of the Pete Carroll years.
• Nebraska: The Cornhuskers nearly pulled off the biggest win of the season last year in the Big XII championship game. We saw them vent some frustration in the 33-0 beat down of Arizona in the Holiday Bowl, but something tells me that Bo Pelini and his boys are not satisfied. Look for them to be breathing fire this year and play with great emotion as they try to take care of some unfinished business and leave the Big XII as champions.
• Texas: It looked like it would never come, but Texas now faces life without Colt McCoy. We all got a taste of the future when McCoy went down in the BCS Championship game. While Garrett Gilbert will have a nice career in Austin, Texas will drop two games this year.
• Oregon: No one is happier that the season is starting than Chip Kelly. After an offseason to forget, with an alarming number of players violating team rules and having run ins with the law, Kelly is relieved to finally move on. If the players handle this well, then Oregon will still be better than most teams in the Pac-10. However, if the locker room is divided and they are dwelling on the off-the-field issues, the Ducks might struggle to finish with a winning record and leave the fan base wondering what might have been.
• Florida: The Gators face a situation similar to Texas. In Gainesville, the Tim Tebow era is over. It is impossible to replace a guy like him. Florida will have to move on the best they can with John Brantley. Besides losing Tebow, Florida nearly lost their coach. After announcing his resignation, Urban Meyer quickly changed it to a leave of absence. While everything seems to be smooth sailing again, how many of the players are worrying whether Coach Meyer will survive the rigors of the year? Although the Gators are the preseason number 3 team, this year is going to be bumpier than the last two. If Meyer and the players hit the panic button when things aren’t as peachy as they were with Tebow around, then this could end as a disappointing year.
• Temple: The Temple Owls were the biggest surprise last year. They won 9 games for the first time since 1979. They were a win against Ohio away from playing for the MAC Championship. Temple has Heisman Trophy aspirations for running back Bernard Pierce. Is Temple hungry for more or did they take their foot off the gas after the surprising success in 2009?
• Florida State: Bobby Bowden is not at Florida State for the first time since 1975. While new head coach Jimbo Fisher has been in the program for the last few years, he is making sure that everyone knows there is a new sheriff in town. The reaction, so far, has not been good. Players are dropping from the roster like flies. Florida State has lost several players in the last few weeks for a lot more reasons than injury. The Seminoles sputtered during Bowden’s final few years. Will the coaching change bring a resurgence, or will it further cripple the program as players struggle to adjust to the new expectations?
• Alabama: They are the defending national champions and now they are number one to start the year, despite having seven players drafted. The preseason number one is a curse, and so is Alabama’s schedule with six conference teams having byes the week before playing the Crimson Tide. Will Alabama have enough drive to repeat to end the season where they are starting? In 2009, they were coming off of back-to-back losses in the SEC Championship game and the Sugar Bowl. Where is the motivation going to come from after a perfect 14-0 national championship season?
1. Is this Joe Paterno’s last ride? Last year we saw the departure of the legendary Bobby Bowden. Now that Bowden is gone, Joe Pa is assured that when he retires he will have more wins than any FBS coach. With 394 wins to his name, he should eclipse the 400 win plateau this year. These two factors just might be enough to get him to finally hang it up after 45 years.
2. Will an SEC team win the National Championship? It has happened for the last four years. Whether the SEC champion has been undefeated or has had two losses, they have made it to the BCS national championship game and come out the victor every time. The SEC championship could be a rematch of Florida and Alabama. If this is the case, I don’t expect either team to be undefeated, so whether the winner makes it to Glendale will depend on how the other automatic qualifying (AQ) champions fare. Two undefeated teams (Ohio State and Oklahoma, perhaps) and the SEC champion will be on the outside looking in. If only one AQ champion is undefeated and so is Boise State or TCU, then the SEC champ probably gets in.
3. Will Boise State or TCU play in the National Championship game? They are both in a very favorable position starting at numbers 5 and 7, respectively, in the USA Today preseason top 25. After the way they played last year, if one of them finishes undefeated, and no other team in the nation is undefeated, then I like their chances to be in the BCS top two. If one AQ champion is undefeated, then Boise State and TCU will have to fight for that second spot. Both teams have earned a shot to prove themselves if they are undefeated, but in the end, they probably won’t make it over a one loss SEC champion.
4. Is this Rich Rodriguez’s break through year at Michigan? With his track record at Tulane and West Virginia, many expected the Wolverines to be a force in the Big Ten last year. Instead, Michigan dropped 7 of 8 league games and finished 5-7. It was a good strategic move by Michigan to hire Rodriguez, but if he doesn’t get things done this year, he is probably gone. That being said, I think Michigan will be back in a bowl and Rich Rod will be on the sidelines in 2011.
5. Will SMU continue its resurgence? While Rodriguez continued to struggle in his second year, June Jones was flourishing in his second year at SMU. The Mustanges went from one win to 8, and slaughtered Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl. Kyle Padron returns at quarterback so I fully expect the Mustangs to gallop in the lead pack of Conference USA and could win the conference in a photo finish.
6. Are select teams auditioning for invitations to join better conferences? The Big Ten doesn’t appear to be satisfied with 12 teams. Pitt, Rutgers, Maryland, and maybe even Virginia are prime candidates. The Big XII may be happy with 10 teams for now, but it won’t be long before they are back to 12. The Memphis faithful are hungry to make the jump to big time football. BYU has made it clear that they are looking for something better than the Mountain West Conference. These teams may find that the way they play on Saturdays was the difference maker in whether they got an invite or not.
7. Can Jeremiah Masoli redeem himself? With a second chance at Ole Miss, the former Oregon Duck may get the last quack. I find it hard to imagine that he won’t be the Rebels starting quarterback. How quickly he can grasp the offense and gel with his teammates will determine his success. He will have a respectable year, but what will determine the winner in this situation will be how well Oregon does without him.
8. Will Jake Locker live up to the hype? For three years we have heard about the phenomenal athleticism and potential of Jake Locker. This summer he went back east on a whirlwind media tour to promote his Heisman Trophy candidacy. Many consider him to be the future number one draft pick in the 2011 NFL draft. With all this fanfare you would think that his college career resembled that of Tim Tebow. On the contrary, Locker has not played in a bowl, nor has he passed for more than 3,000 yards in a season. I predict that Locker will break both these trends this year. Locker and Washington are poised for a breakout year in Steve Sarkisian’s second year as head coach.
9. Who will represent the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl? No conference race is more wide open than the Pac-10. USC has a bowl ban, so even if they win the conference, they won’t play in the Rose Bowl. Oregon had a good chance to make a repeat showing until they lost Masoli and had a rash of other off the field issues that affected the team. Stanford is making strides, but replacing Tody Gerhart will keep the Rose Bowl out of reach. Same goes for Cal without Jahvid Best. Washington and UCLA are dark horses that I wouldn’t count out. In the end, this is Oregon State’s year. The Beavers will get off to a typically slow start, but when the conference games roll around Jaquizz Rodgers and company will be ready.
10. Will Case Keenum break the NCAA record for career passing yards? With back-to-back 5,000 yard passing seasons and 12,950 yards to his credit, Keenum is only 4,123 yards away from breaking Timmy Chang’s record (17,072). Barring injury, Keenum will break this record with ease. The better question might be how high will he push this mark?
Bonus: How will they react? With the way 2009 ended and the events during the offseason, I am curious to know how several teams will react to what happened. Their reactions will go a long way in shaping how the 2010 season plays out.
• USC: Pete Carroll left for the NFL, and the NCAA finally ruled in the Reggie Bush case. With no bowl game to play for and some players transferring, how will the men of Troy react? USC has a lot of pride, and, like him or not, Lane Kiffen overachieved last year at Tennessee. I see USC bouncing back from last year’s 9-4 campaign and playing with a chip on their shoulder. Even with Carroll gone, the end result will be typical of the Pete Carroll years.
• Nebraska: The Cornhuskers nearly pulled off the biggest win of the season last year in the Big XII championship game. We saw them vent some frustration in the 33-0 beat down of Arizona in the Holiday Bowl, but something tells me that Bo Pelini and his boys are not satisfied. Look for them to be breathing fire this year and play with great emotion as they try to take care of some unfinished business and leave the Big XII as champions.
• Texas: It looked like it would never come, but Texas now faces life without Colt McCoy. We all got a taste of the future when McCoy went down in the BCS Championship game. While Garrett Gilbert will have a nice career in Austin, Texas will drop two games this year.
• Oregon: No one is happier that the season is starting than Chip Kelly. After an offseason to forget, with an alarming number of players violating team rules and having run ins with the law, Kelly is relieved to finally move on. If the players handle this well, then Oregon will still be better than most teams in the Pac-10. However, if the locker room is divided and they are dwelling on the off-the-field issues, the Ducks might struggle to finish with a winning record and leave the fan base wondering what might have been.
• Florida: The Gators face a situation similar to Texas. In Gainesville, the Tim Tebow era is over. It is impossible to replace a guy like him. Florida will have to move on the best they can with John Brantley. Besides losing Tebow, Florida nearly lost their coach. After announcing his resignation, Urban Meyer quickly changed it to a leave of absence. While everything seems to be smooth sailing again, how many of the players are worrying whether Coach Meyer will survive the rigors of the year? Although the Gators are the preseason number 3 team, this year is going to be bumpier than the last two. If Meyer and the players hit the panic button when things aren’t as peachy as they were with Tebow around, then this could end as a disappointing year.
• Temple: The Temple Owls were the biggest surprise last year. They won 9 games for the first time since 1979. They were a win against Ohio away from playing for the MAC Championship. Temple has Heisman Trophy aspirations for running back Bernard Pierce. Is Temple hungry for more or did they take their foot off the gas after the surprising success in 2009?
• Florida State: Bobby Bowden is not at Florida State for the first time since 1975. While new head coach Jimbo Fisher has been in the program for the last few years, he is making sure that everyone knows there is a new sheriff in town. The reaction, so far, has not been good. Players are dropping from the roster like flies. Florida State has lost several players in the last few weeks for a lot more reasons than injury. The Seminoles sputtered during Bowden’s final few years. Will the coaching change bring a resurgence, or will it further cripple the program as players struggle to adjust to the new expectations?
• Alabama: They are the defending national champions and now they are number one to start the year, despite having seven players drafted. The preseason number one is a curse, and so is Alabama’s schedule with six conference teams having byes the week before playing the Crimson Tide. Will Alabama have enough drive to repeat to end the season where they are starting? In 2009, they were coming off of back-to-back losses in the SEC Championship game and the Sugar Bowl. Where is the motivation going to come from after a perfect 14-0 national championship season?
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Big XII Ultimatum--Is this a joke?
The Big 12 has given Nebraska and Missouri an ultimatum for conference membership. The two schools have until Friday, June 11, 2010, to declare whether they are staying in the Big 12 or leaving for another conference. Really? This is the ultimate sign of desperation by the Big 12 conference officials. I find it hard to believe that the schools actually voted to issue this ultimatum. Six of the other 10 schools in the Big 12 have nothing to worry about if Nebraska and Missouri leave. Anyways, what good does this ultimatum do?
If I were Nebraska or Missouri, I would not respond. Go ahead, Big 12, kick me out. The worst thing that I see happening is the Big 10 does not extend an invite, so I have to go back to the Big 12 and say, "Sorry, will you let me back in?" I feel confident the Big 12 will say yes. The ultimatum makes it clear that the Big 12 has no "slam dunk" replacement schools, so when I come back as a known commodity, they will let me back in.
If Nebraska and Missouri do pledge loyalty to the Big 12, that is a slap in the face to the Big 10. This conference expansion carousel is still moving. The Big 10 might not be ready to extend an invite now, but maybe six months down the road will be. If you send the wrong message to the Big 10 you could kill your chances for the future. This is important because even with your commitment, Texas, Oklahoma, et al. can still bolt for the Pac-10, SEC, or something else. One thing we have learned already is that conference alignment is done on a school by school basis (with maybe the state of Texas being the one exception). Schools are making a decision based on themselves, not on how they may hurt/help the other teams in the conference by leaving or staying.
Yes, the ultimatum is a joke. The joke is the Big 12 officials, who are so scared of losing their job that they think they can use scare tactics to keep the conference from dissolving.
If I were Nebraska or Missouri, I would not respond. Go ahead, Big 12, kick me out. The worst thing that I see happening is the Big 10 does not extend an invite, so I have to go back to the Big 12 and say, "Sorry, will you let me back in?" I feel confident the Big 12 will say yes. The ultimatum makes it clear that the Big 12 has no "slam dunk" replacement schools, so when I come back as a known commodity, they will let me back in.
If Nebraska and Missouri do pledge loyalty to the Big 12, that is a slap in the face to the Big 10. This conference expansion carousel is still moving. The Big 10 might not be ready to extend an invite now, but maybe six months down the road will be. If you send the wrong message to the Big 10 you could kill your chances for the future. This is important because even with your commitment, Texas, Oklahoma, et al. can still bolt for the Pac-10, SEC, or something else. One thing we have learned already is that conference alignment is done on a school by school basis (with maybe the state of Texas being the one exception). Schools are making a decision based on themselves, not on how they may hurt/help the other teams in the conference by leaving or staying.
Yes, the ultimatum is a joke. The joke is the Big 12 officials, who are so scared of losing their job that they think they can use scare tactics to keep the conference from dissolving.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Conference Expansion Craziness
Sorry I have not posted a real article or anything for such a long time. Thank you to those who still frequented the site and have been participating in the opinion polls.
We are in the middle of what is supposed to be the quiet time for college football. Letter of Intent day is long passed and the spring football practice sessions wrapped up weeks ago. Classes are out and the coaches can't have contact with the players. Yet, the conference expansion craze is generating enough headlines and discussion to make this as busy as the regular season. Let's quickly run down the popular possibilities for each conference in expansion.
Big 10
We will start with the one that is responsible for this mess.
Plan A is to add Notre Dame to reach 12 and hold a championship game.
Plan B seems to be to take teams from the Big 12 and Big East to reach 14. Top candidates include the Big 12's Nebraska and Missouri and the Big East's Rutgers, Syracuse, and Pitt.
Pac-10
Plan A is to change the rule for championship games to conferences with 10 teams, as opposed to the current minimum of 12.
Plan A-1 emerged just last weekend to add six Big 12 schools that would include Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and either Colorado or Baylor.
Plan B Add Colorado and Utah to reach 12 and get a championship game to leverage a better TV deal and start a Pac-12 Network.
Big 12
Plan A is to weather the storm by keeping the nucleus of Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. They would prefer not to lose any team, but if Missouri goes they will survive.
Plan B add BYU, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Arkansas, or another team NOT IN THE CURRENT BIG 12 FOOTPRINT to replace Missouri.
SEC
Plan A is to wait and see what happens knowing most likely they won't have to do anything.
Plan B is to expand to 16 teams by attacking the ACC and/or Big 12. Popular candidates include Texas, Texas A&M, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, and Georgia Tech.
Big East
Plan A is to give Notre Dame an ultimatum to join the conference for football or lose membership for its other sports. This is viewed as the best hope for survival, regardless of Notre Dame's response. The idea is to stop radical changes by forcing Notre Dame to join the Big 10 or, in their dreams, to stabilize the Big East by having Notre Dame as a football school.
Plan B die.
Plan C reach into the mid-majors again and repopulate the conference after the dust settles.
THE REST
Plan A is to wait and see. The Mountain West Conference (MWC) made this clear yesterday in a press conference announcing that Boise State would not be added. The ACC will only add teams if it loses teams or 16 becomes the new 12. The rest of the mid-majors won't expand unless one of the major conferences disbands and they feel they can capitalize with one of the once privileged "BCS schools."
With all these options on the table, which make the most sense and are the most likely?
Big 10 Plan A. Probably not going to happen. Notre Dame is being very vocal about wanting to stay independent, which means that is probably the message the boosters are sending. Notre Dame will listen to its boosters more than the Big 10.
Big 10 Plan B. Rumors are that Nebraska and Missouri to the Big 10 is immenent and could be annouced very soon. I think this has a high probability of happening, but not this month. Expansion is as big of a decision for these conferences as marraige is to an individual. The conferences will take the time that they need. These two teams would bring the total to 13 for the Big 10, which means one Big East team needs to come along. Pitt has the best football program, but offers the least new market. Rutgers has shown promise and the head coach is committed to the school, but how much market do the Scarlet Knights really bring? Syracuse has been putrid in football, but is great in basketball. However, the Orangemen seem to have the potential of delivering the most TV sets. I would rank the likelihood of these teams joining the Big 10 as 1-Rutgers, 2-Pitt, 3-Syracuse.
Pac-10 Plan A and A-1. Until the news broke about the 6 Big 12 schools I thought changing the championship game rule was going to happen and the Pac-10 would not change. If the numbers add up for Texas, I think the six Big 12 teams will end up joining the Pac. I have no expertise in projecting TV revenues, but I think there is a good chance that Texas would stand to profit with this arrangement with the Pac-10. If not, I think this opens a new can of worms for the top teams from the Pac and the top teams from the Big 12 to form a new 12-16 team conference hand picking the teams that would make the $$$ numbers work.
Pac-10 Plan B. What was once the most likely and reasonable scenario is as good as dead, I think. If this was such a great idea, the Pac-10 would not be bending over backwards to try and make other scenarios work.
Big 12 Plan A. Your guess is as good as mine about keeping the Big 12 nucleus together. It is hard to imagine that the Big 12 could cease to exist, but at this point we have to accept that it just might.
Big 12 Plan B. If Missouri is the only school to replace you can rule out Arkansas and Memphis as candidates. It won't happen. Cincinnati is very unlikely as well. I think it will come down to Louisville or BYU. Anyone who knows me will know that BYU would be my preference, but my gut feeling tells me that the Big 12 would prefer to expand east, not west. A presence east of the Mississippi could be very valuable.
SEC Plan A. This is the plan I envision the SEC following. Even if conferences expand to 16 teams now, the SEC is in a position to wait and see if these expansions really work. If they do, the SEC is strong enough to rip teams away from almost anyone.
Big East Plan A. I don't see the ultimatum happening. I really think the Big East will go down (Plan B) without much of a fight if two or more teams are taken. Raiding other conferences will prove fruitless because the Big East will be so weakened that BCS automatic qualifying status will be lost.
To summarize, the biggest players in the conference expansion game are: Notre Dame, Texas, and the NCAA rule for minimum teams required for a championship game. Notre Dame is capable of keeping the structure of eastern college football largely in tact by joining the Big East. Texas is capable of exploding the structure of college football nationwide by breaking up the Big 12. An NCAA rule change could keep everything status quo. Not only would it satisfy the Pac 10, it could satisfy the Big 10, or keep the Big 12 from expanding if one or two teams leave.
We are in the middle of what is supposed to be the quiet time for college football. Letter of Intent day is long passed and the spring football practice sessions wrapped up weeks ago. Classes are out and the coaches can't have contact with the players. Yet, the conference expansion craze is generating enough headlines and discussion to make this as busy as the regular season. Let's quickly run down the popular possibilities for each conference in expansion.
Big 10
We will start with the one that is responsible for this mess.
Plan A is to add Notre Dame to reach 12 and hold a championship game.
Plan B seems to be to take teams from the Big 12 and Big East to reach 14. Top candidates include the Big 12's Nebraska and Missouri and the Big East's Rutgers, Syracuse, and Pitt.
Pac-10
Plan A is to change the rule for championship games to conferences with 10 teams, as opposed to the current minimum of 12.
Plan A-1 emerged just last weekend to add six Big 12 schools that would include Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and either Colorado or Baylor.
Plan B Add Colorado and Utah to reach 12 and get a championship game to leverage a better TV deal and start a Pac-12 Network.
Big 12
Plan A is to weather the storm by keeping the nucleus of Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. They would prefer not to lose any team, but if Missouri goes they will survive.
Plan B add BYU, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Arkansas, or another team NOT IN THE CURRENT BIG 12 FOOTPRINT to replace Missouri.
SEC
Plan A is to wait and see what happens knowing most likely they won't have to do anything.
Plan B is to expand to 16 teams by attacking the ACC and/or Big 12. Popular candidates include Texas, Texas A&M, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, and Georgia Tech.
Big East
Plan A is to give Notre Dame an ultimatum to join the conference for football or lose membership for its other sports. This is viewed as the best hope for survival, regardless of Notre Dame's response. The idea is to stop radical changes by forcing Notre Dame to join the Big 10 or, in their dreams, to stabilize the Big East by having Notre Dame as a football school.
Plan B die.
Plan C reach into the mid-majors again and repopulate the conference after the dust settles.
THE REST
Plan A is to wait and see. The Mountain West Conference (MWC) made this clear yesterday in a press conference announcing that Boise State would not be added. The ACC will only add teams if it loses teams or 16 becomes the new 12. The rest of the mid-majors won't expand unless one of the major conferences disbands and they feel they can capitalize with one of the once privileged "BCS schools."
With all these options on the table, which make the most sense and are the most likely?
Big 10 Plan A. Probably not going to happen. Notre Dame is being very vocal about wanting to stay independent, which means that is probably the message the boosters are sending. Notre Dame will listen to its boosters more than the Big 10.
Big 10 Plan B. Rumors are that Nebraska and Missouri to the Big 10 is immenent and could be annouced very soon. I think this has a high probability of happening, but not this month. Expansion is as big of a decision for these conferences as marraige is to an individual. The conferences will take the time that they need. These two teams would bring the total to 13 for the Big 10, which means one Big East team needs to come along. Pitt has the best football program, but offers the least new market. Rutgers has shown promise and the head coach is committed to the school, but how much market do the Scarlet Knights really bring? Syracuse has been putrid in football, but is great in basketball. However, the Orangemen seem to have the potential of delivering the most TV sets. I would rank the likelihood of these teams joining the Big 10 as 1-Rutgers, 2-Pitt, 3-Syracuse.
Pac-10 Plan A and A-1. Until the news broke about the 6 Big 12 schools I thought changing the championship game rule was going to happen and the Pac-10 would not change. If the numbers add up for Texas, I think the six Big 12 teams will end up joining the Pac. I have no expertise in projecting TV revenues, but I think there is a good chance that Texas would stand to profit with this arrangement with the Pac-10. If not, I think this opens a new can of worms for the top teams from the Pac and the top teams from the Big 12 to form a new 12-16 team conference hand picking the teams that would make the $$$ numbers work.
Pac-10 Plan B. What was once the most likely and reasonable scenario is as good as dead, I think. If this was such a great idea, the Pac-10 would not be bending over backwards to try and make other scenarios work.
Big 12 Plan A. Your guess is as good as mine about keeping the Big 12 nucleus together. It is hard to imagine that the Big 12 could cease to exist, but at this point we have to accept that it just might.
Big 12 Plan B. If Missouri is the only school to replace you can rule out Arkansas and Memphis as candidates. It won't happen. Cincinnati is very unlikely as well. I think it will come down to Louisville or BYU. Anyone who knows me will know that BYU would be my preference, but my gut feeling tells me that the Big 12 would prefer to expand east, not west. A presence east of the Mississippi could be very valuable.
SEC Plan A. This is the plan I envision the SEC following. Even if conferences expand to 16 teams now, the SEC is in a position to wait and see if these expansions really work. If they do, the SEC is strong enough to rip teams away from almost anyone.
Big East Plan A. I don't see the ultimatum happening. I really think the Big East will go down (Plan B) without much of a fight if two or more teams are taken. Raiding other conferences will prove fruitless because the Big East will be so weakened that BCS automatic qualifying status will be lost.
To summarize, the biggest players in the conference expansion game are: Notre Dame, Texas, and the NCAA rule for minimum teams required for a championship game. Notre Dame is capable of keeping the structure of eastern college football largely in tact by joining the Big East. Texas is capable of exploding the structure of college football nationwide by breaking up the Big 12. An NCAA rule change could keep everything status quo. Not only would it satisfy the Pac 10, it could satisfy the Big 10, or keep the Big 12 from expanding if one or two teams leave.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
The Evidence: Performance on the Field
This is the third part of the BCS Bash series. For part one, click here. For part two, click here.
We all come to a point in life when we have to make a decision, but the best choice is not clear. However, after we make and carry out that decision, we are able to judge if the decision we made. The Bowl Alliance decided to include the Big East, Big 8, Southwest, Atlantic Coast, and Southeastern conferences and to exclude the Western Athletic, Mid-America, and Big West conferences. The Bowl Alliance decided to have the participants in its three bowl games be the conference champions of the five included conferences, plus one at-large team. The BCS made these same decisions three years later. (Note: The Big 8 and Southwest conferences merged in 1996 to form the Big 12. For clarity, I will refer only to the Big 12 for the rest of this article.)
The declared intent was still to match number one and number two in a bowl game, but the actions of the organizers sent a clear message that participating in the elite bowls was for conference champions. If you are a champion you have automatic access. If you are not a champion get in line and hope your name is called. The automatic access, however, was not granted to all conference champions because not all conference champions were viewed as equal. Champions of the SEC, ACC, Big East, and Big 12 were in a higher class than the other conference champions. They were given automatic qualifying status because they were "extra special." The other conference champions were merely mediocre.
This is America and we have the freedom of speech, so there is nothing illegal with anyone making that statement. In America you are also innocent until proven guilty, so let’s take this to the judge.
Court is now in session. Charges have come against the Bowl Alliance/BCS for unjustly limiting the automatic qualifying status for conference champions to the ACC, SEC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, and Pac-10. The prosecution argues that for anyone to be a conference champion, they earn that distinction through their performance on the field of play. If these six conference champions are so superior to the other conference champions, their performance on the field of play will reflect that.
Exhibit one is the win-loss record and winning percentage before bowl games for the conference champions for the automatic qualifying conferences dating back to 1996.
Year....ACC....SEC....Big East..Big 10...Big 12...Pac-10
1996....11-0...11-1......10-1.........10-1.....8-4......11-0
1997....10-1...11-1.......9-3.........11-0....12-0......10-1
1998....11-1...12-0.......8-3.........10-1....11-2......10-1
1999....11-0...10-2......11-0..........9-2....11-1.......8-3
2000....10-1....9-3......11-0.........10-1....10-2......10-1
2001....10-1....9-3......11-0.........10-1....10-2......10-1
2002.....9-4...12-1......12-0.........13-0....11-2......10-2
2003....10-2...12-1......10-2.........10-2....11-3......11-1
2004....10-2...12-0.......8-3..........9-2....12-0......12-0
2005.....8-4...10-2......10-1.........10-1....12-0......12-0
2006....11-2...12-1......11-1.........12-0....11-2......10-2
2007....11-2...11-2......10-2.........11-1....11-2......10-2
2008.....9-4...12-1......11-2.........11-1....12-1......11-1
2009....11-2...13-0......12-0.........10-2....13-0......10-2
Total 143-26..157-17..143-19....154-17..157-19...145-17
Win % 0.846...0.902...0.882.....0.901...0.892....0.895
Relevance: The ACC champion had the lowest winning percentage (0.846) among the conference champions awarded automatic qualification to a BCS bowl. If this winning percentage is significantly higher than that of the conference champions not awarded automatic qualification to a BCS bowl, then the BCS is justified for excluding those other conferences.
Exhibit two is another table that shows the win-loss record and winning percentage before bowl games for the conference champions for the non-automatic qualifying conferences dating back to 1996.
Year...MWC*...WAC**...MAC...Conf. USA
1996...13-1.......8-3........8-3.........8-3
1997...10-2.......6-5.......10-2.........8-3
1998...11-1.......8-3.......11-1........11-0
1999....8-3.......8-4.......12-0.........8-3
2000....9-2......10-1........7-5.........9-2
2001...12-1.......7-4........9-2........10-2
2002...10-3......11-1.......10-2.........9-2
2003....9-2......12-1.......12-1.........9-3
2004...11-0......11-0........9-3........10-1
2005...10-1.......9-3........7-5.........8-4
2006...10-2......12-0........9-4........10-3
2007...10-2......12-0........8-5........10-3
2008...12-0......12-0........8-5.........9-4
2009...12-0......13-0.......11-2.........9-4
Total 147-20...139-25......131-40.... 128-37
Win%..0.880...0.847.......0.766......0.775
* = The Mountain West Conference (MWC) did not exist prior to the 1999 season. The data used for 1996-1998 are the records of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) champion since the MWC members competed in that conference at that time and all WAC champions during that time are now members of the MWC.
** = Most of the teams comprising the WAC today were members of the Big West Conference from 1996-1998, so the records of the Big West Champion was used for those years.
(Note: The Sun Belt Conference did not exist prior to 2001, so for lack of data, the Sun Belt Conference was not used in this comparison.)
Relevance: On the field of play, both the MWC and the WAC champions, over a 14 year period, have sustained better on the field performance than the ACC champion. The WAC champion’s winning percentage was 0.001 better, and the MWC champion’s winning percentage was 0.034 better. It is also important to point out that the MWC champion’s wining percentage was only 0.002 less than the Big East champion. The performance on the field of play by the WAC and the MWC champions has exceeded that of the ACC. The MWC champion is even on par with the Big East champion.
Exhibit three is the results of the “BCS Busters” against teams from automatic qualifying conferences.
2004: Utah 35, Pittsburgh 7 (Pittsburgh was the Big East Champion)
2006: Boise State 43, Oklahoma 42 (Oklahoma was the Big 12 Champion)
2007: Georgia 41, Hawaii 10
2008: Utah 31, Alabama 17
Overall Record: 3-1 (2-0 versus automatic qualifying conference champions)
Relevance: On the field of play, non-automatic qualifying conference champions have won 75% of the time they have played in BCS bowl games against teams from AQ conferences, and 100% of the time these non-automatic qualifying conference champions have played automatic qualifying champions.
While Hawaii lost to Georgia by 31 points that does not hurt my case. Teams from conferences with AQ status have lost by 31 points or more in Bowl Alliance or BCS games on six occasions.
Florida lost to Nebraska by 38 points in 1995
Florida State lost to Florida by 32 points in 1996
Notre Dame lost to Oregon State by 32 points in 2000
Maryland lost to Florida by 33 points in 2001
Oklahoma lost to USC by 36 points in 2004
Illinois lost to USC by 32 points in 2007
The BCS’s decision to exclude cannot be justified by Hawaii’s blowout loss since it is not the only time that a BCS game has had such an outcome. In fact, Hawaii did not have the greatest losing margin of all teams in BCS games in 2007. On the other side of the coin, Utah won in 2004 by 28 points, which begs the question, “Why would such a superior conference champion lose so lopsidedly?”
Exhibit four is the changes in conference make up. Since the Bowl Alliance formed in 1995, the composition of the Big 8, the ACC and the Big East have all changed. The Big 8 added teams from the SWC and the ACC swiped teams from the Big East. The Big East, however, reached into the pile of leftovers (teams not in a conference granted automatic qualifying status) and added three teams. Since the Big East added teams, three out of five years one of the former outsiders won the conference.
Relevance: While the Big East conducted research to determine the best candidates to add to the conference, the Big East did not need authorization by the BCS. The BCS did not conduct its own analysis of performance on the field of play and conclude who were the three most qualified teams in college football for membership in the exclusive BCS circle. The precedent established in 1995 changed the rules for conference expansion. The ACC added teams from a fellow AQ conference, but if a conference was going to reach outside the AQ boundaries, then the BCS should have to approve the move.
Furthermore, the immediate success of these new Big East members shows that, on the field of play, teams from conferences without an automatic qualifying conference champion are NOT inferior to the teams in conferences with an automatic qualifying conference champion.
Exhibit five is that the expressed purpose of the Bowl Alliance, which the BCS continued, was to create a system that would match the number one and number two ranked teams in the same bowl game.
Relevance: On two occasions (Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003) teams who were not conference champions played for the national championship. To play for the national championship, a team must be ranked either number one or number two. Since teams who were not conference champions qualified for the national championship game, the BCS showed that automatic qualifying status for conference champions was not necessary to accomplish its intent. Therefore, one or more of the parties involved in creating the Bowl Alliance and the BCS were working to protect special interests by creating the automatic qualifying status for a limited number of conferences in college football.
Closing Arguments: The defendant will, undoubtedly, attempt to counter my evidence with the strength of schedule for teams from the conferences with automatic qualifying champions. I rebut that argument by reiterating what was covered yesterday regarding “overall conference strength.” This notion of “strength of schedule” is a false perception born out of misconceptions that have, unfortunately, corrupted all forms of rankings and ratings for college football. When the issue is automatic qualifying status for conference champions, the only evidence that matters is performance on the field.
Specific to exhibit three, the defendant might rebut by incorporating regular season head-to-head competition of teams from conferences with automatic qualifying status versus teams from conferences without automatic qualifying status. That is irrelevant evidence. First, any head-to-head comparison should be between conference champions in the year that both teams were conference champions. Second, head-to-head competition is not a criterion used for selection of any team to the BCS bowls. USC and Notre Dame have both played in BCS bowls in the same year, regardless of the results on the field of play in the regular season. The same can be said for Florida and Florida State. Even in 2008, USC embarrassed Ohio State during the season, but both played in BCS bowls. The tables in exhibits one and two include all regular season games. Any head-to-head competitions that occurred are a part of those records. Bringing in regular season head-to-head competition is another bad cover up. It would be like lying: once you lie, you have to use another lie to cover it up. Regular season head-to-head competition would be using an injustice to cover up the original injustice.
The evidence I have presented clearly shows that two conference champions that don’t have automatic qualifying status have performed equally on the field of play to the conference champions that do have automatic qualifying status.
When we find out that we made a bad decision, we take corrective action. The BCS needs to take corrective action. Like most corrective action, it will hurt the wrongdoer. Fortunately in this case, the corrective action is simple. For now, though, we have had enough for one day. Come back tomorrow for The Solution.
Part 4: The Solution: It's About Conference Champions
Sources:
www.shrpsports.com/cf/
www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4809942
We all come to a point in life when we have to make a decision, but the best choice is not clear. However, after we make and carry out that decision, we are able to judge if the decision we made. The Bowl Alliance decided to include the Big East, Big 8, Southwest, Atlantic Coast, and Southeastern conferences and to exclude the Western Athletic, Mid-America, and Big West conferences. The Bowl Alliance decided to have the participants in its three bowl games be the conference champions of the five included conferences, plus one at-large team. The BCS made these same decisions three years later. (Note: The Big 8 and Southwest conferences merged in 1996 to form the Big 12. For clarity, I will refer only to the Big 12 for the rest of this article.)
The declared intent was still to match number one and number two in a bowl game, but the actions of the organizers sent a clear message that participating in the elite bowls was for conference champions. If you are a champion you have automatic access. If you are not a champion get in line and hope your name is called. The automatic access, however, was not granted to all conference champions because not all conference champions were viewed as equal. Champions of the SEC, ACC, Big East, and Big 12 were in a higher class than the other conference champions. They were given automatic qualifying status because they were "extra special." The other conference champions were merely mediocre.
This is America and we have the freedom of speech, so there is nothing illegal with anyone making that statement. In America you are also innocent until proven guilty, so let’s take this to the judge.
Court is now in session. Charges have come against the Bowl Alliance/BCS for unjustly limiting the automatic qualifying status for conference champions to the ACC, SEC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, and Pac-10. The prosecution argues that for anyone to be a conference champion, they earn that distinction through their performance on the field of play. If these six conference champions are so superior to the other conference champions, their performance on the field of play will reflect that.
Exhibit one is the win-loss record and winning percentage before bowl games for the conference champions for the automatic qualifying conferences dating back to 1996.
Year....ACC....SEC....Big East..Big 10...Big 12...Pac-10
1996....11-0...11-1......10-1.........10-1.....8-4......11-0
1997....10-1...11-1.......9-3.........11-0....12-0......10-1
1998....11-1...12-0.......8-3.........10-1....11-2......10-1
1999....11-0...10-2......11-0..........9-2....11-1.......8-3
2000....10-1....9-3......11-0.........10-1....10-2......10-1
2001....10-1....9-3......11-0.........10-1....10-2......10-1
2002.....9-4...12-1......12-0.........13-0....11-2......10-2
2003....10-2...12-1......10-2.........10-2....11-3......11-1
2004....10-2...12-0.......8-3..........9-2....12-0......12-0
2005.....8-4...10-2......10-1.........10-1....12-0......12-0
2006....11-2...12-1......11-1.........12-0....11-2......10-2
2007....11-2...11-2......10-2.........11-1....11-2......10-2
2008.....9-4...12-1......11-2.........11-1....12-1......11-1
2009....11-2...13-0......12-0.........10-2....13-0......10-2
Total 143-26..157-17..143-19....154-17..157-19...145-17
Win % 0.846...0.902...0.882.....0.901...0.892....0.895
Relevance: The ACC champion had the lowest winning percentage (0.846) among the conference champions awarded automatic qualification to a BCS bowl. If this winning percentage is significantly higher than that of the conference champions not awarded automatic qualification to a BCS bowl, then the BCS is justified for excluding those other conferences.
Exhibit two is another table that shows the win-loss record and winning percentage before bowl games for the conference champions for the non-automatic qualifying conferences dating back to 1996.
Year...MWC*...WAC**...MAC...Conf. USA
1996...13-1.......8-3........8-3.........8-3
1997...10-2.......6-5.......10-2.........8-3
1998...11-1.......8-3.......11-1........11-0
1999....8-3.......8-4.......12-0.........8-3
2000....9-2......10-1........7-5.........9-2
2001...12-1.......7-4........9-2........10-2
2002...10-3......11-1.......10-2.........9-2
2003....9-2......12-1.......12-1.........9-3
2004...11-0......11-0........9-3........10-1
2005...10-1.......9-3........7-5.........8-4
2006...10-2......12-0........9-4........10-3
2007...10-2......12-0........8-5........10-3
2008...12-0......12-0........8-5.........9-4
2009...12-0......13-0.......11-2.........9-4
Total 147-20...139-25......131-40.... 128-37
Win%..0.880...0.847.......0.766......0.775
* = The Mountain West Conference (MWC) did not exist prior to the 1999 season. The data used for 1996-1998 are the records of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) champion since the MWC members competed in that conference at that time and all WAC champions during that time are now members of the MWC.
** = Most of the teams comprising the WAC today were members of the Big West Conference from 1996-1998, so the records of the Big West Champion was used for those years.
(Note: The Sun Belt Conference did not exist prior to 2001, so for lack of data, the Sun Belt Conference was not used in this comparison.)
Relevance: On the field of play, both the MWC and the WAC champions, over a 14 year period, have sustained better on the field performance than the ACC champion. The WAC champion’s winning percentage was 0.001 better, and the MWC champion’s winning percentage was 0.034 better. It is also important to point out that the MWC champion’s wining percentage was only 0.002 less than the Big East champion. The performance on the field of play by the WAC and the MWC champions has exceeded that of the ACC. The MWC champion is even on par with the Big East champion.
Exhibit three is the results of the “BCS Busters” against teams from automatic qualifying conferences.
2004: Utah 35, Pittsburgh 7 (Pittsburgh was the Big East Champion)
2006: Boise State 43, Oklahoma 42 (Oklahoma was the Big 12 Champion)
2007: Georgia 41, Hawaii 10
2008: Utah 31, Alabama 17
Overall Record: 3-1 (2-0 versus automatic qualifying conference champions)
Relevance: On the field of play, non-automatic qualifying conference champions have won 75% of the time they have played in BCS bowl games against teams from AQ conferences, and 100% of the time these non-automatic qualifying conference champions have played automatic qualifying champions.
While Hawaii lost to Georgia by 31 points that does not hurt my case. Teams from conferences with AQ status have lost by 31 points or more in Bowl Alliance or BCS games on six occasions.
Florida lost to Nebraska by 38 points in 1995
Florida State lost to Florida by 32 points in 1996
Notre Dame lost to Oregon State by 32 points in 2000
Maryland lost to Florida by 33 points in 2001
Oklahoma lost to USC by 36 points in 2004
Illinois lost to USC by 32 points in 2007
The BCS’s decision to exclude cannot be justified by Hawaii’s blowout loss since it is not the only time that a BCS game has had such an outcome. In fact, Hawaii did not have the greatest losing margin of all teams in BCS games in 2007. On the other side of the coin, Utah won in 2004 by 28 points, which begs the question, “Why would such a superior conference champion lose so lopsidedly?”
Exhibit four is the changes in conference make up. Since the Bowl Alliance formed in 1995, the composition of the Big 8, the ACC and the Big East have all changed. The Big 8 added teams from the SWC and the ACC swiped teams from the Big East. The Big East, however, reached into the pile of leftovers (teams not in a conference granted automatic qualifying status) and added three teams. Since the Big East added teams, three out of five years one of the former outsiders won the conference.
Relevance: While the Big East conducted research to determine the best candidates to add to the conference, the Big East did not need authorization by the BCS. The BCS did not conduct its own analysis of performance on the field of play and conclude who were the three most qualified teams in college football for membership in the exclusive BCS circle. The precedent established in 1995 changed the rules for conference expansion. The ACC added teams from a fellow AQ conference, but if a conference was going to reach outside the AQ boundaries, then the BCS should have to approve the move.
Furthermore, the immediate success of these new Big East members shows that, on the field of play, teams from conferences without an automatic qualifying conference champion are NOT inferior to the teams in conferences with an automatic qualifying conference champion.
Exhibit five is that the expressed purpose of the Bowl Alliance, which the BCS continued, was to create a system that would match the number one and number two ranked teams in the same bowl game.
Relevance: On two occasions (Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003) teams who were not conference champions played for the national championship. To play for the national championship, a team must be ranked either number one or number two. Since teams who were not conference champions qualified for the national championship game, the BCS showed that automatic qualifying status for conference champions was not necessary to accomplish its intent. Therefore, one or more of the parties involved in creating the Bowl Alliance and the BCS were working to protect special interests by creating the automatic qualifying status for a limited number of conferences in college football.
Closing Arguments: The defendant will, undoubtedly, attempt to counter my evidence with the strength of schedule for teams from the conferences with automatic qualifying champions. I rebut that argument by reiterating what was covered yesterday regarding “overall conference strength.” This notion of “strength of schedule” is a false perception born out of misconceptions that have, unfortunately, corrupted all forms of rankings and ratings for college football. When the issue is automatic qualifying status for conference champions, the only evidence that matters is performance on the field.
Specific to exhibit three, the defendant might rebut by incorporating regular season head-to-head competition of teams from conferences with automatic qualifying status versus teams from conferences without automatic qualifying status. That is irrelevant evidence. First, any head-to-head comparison should be between conference champions in the year that both teams were conference champions. Second, head-to-head competition is not a criterion used for selection of any team to the BCS bowls. USC and Notre Dame have both played in BCS bowls in the same year, regardless of the results on the field of play in the regular season. The same can be said for Florida and Florida State. Even in 2008, USC embarrassed Ohio State during the season, but both played in BCS bowls. The tables in exhibits one and two include all regular season games. Any head-to-head competitions that occurred are a part of those records. Bringing in regular season head-to-head competition is another bad cover up. It would be like lying: once you lie, you have to use another lie to cover it up. Regular season head-to-head competition would be using an injustice to cover up the original injustice.
The evidence I have presented clearly shows that two conference champions that don’t have automatic qualifying status have performed equally on the field of play to the conference champions that do have automatic qualifying status.
When we find out that we made a bad decision, we take corrective action. The BCS needs to take corrective action. Like most corrective action, it will hurt the wrongdoer. Fortunately in this case, the corrective action is simple. For now, though, we have had enough for one day. Come back tomorrow for The Solution.
Part 4: The Solution: It's About Conference Champions
Sources:
www.shrpsports.com/cf/
www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4809942
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
The Cover Up: Overall Conference Strength
This is the second part of the BCS Bash series. For part one, click here.
Once the Bowl Coalition and its successors adopted a platform that would use conference champions as a means to its end, and then gave automatic qualifying status to the champions of the participating conferences, these entities needed to justify that platform. Justifying this platform was easy to defend in the beginning. Few criticized them and most just glossed over the automatic qualifying element. As time has passed and very good teams from the other conferences were overtly excluded from playing in one of the bowls, greater scrutiny has been given to the automatic qualifying status for six conferences.
The automatic qualifying provision has been exposed as a bad cover up. The conferences with automatic qualifying status needed some incentive to join this pact, and the automatic qualifying status for their champion was the incentive. Of course, if you are going to extend privileges you need to justify those privileges. To justify this privilege and to try and keep the hidden agendas safe, the battle cry became “overall conference strength.” The overall conference strength of these six conferences is so much better than the rest of the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) conferences that these six conference champions earned, by play on the field, one of the ten (formerly 8) slots in the participating bowl games. The other conference champions were relegated to parading themselves for style points from the voters and computers in a competition with the second and third place teams from conferences with automatically qualifying champions for the four (formerly 2) remaining slots.
Overall conference strength!!! Are you serious? How do you quantify that? Do you compare the last place teams in each conference? Do you look at each team’s non-conference record? Do you look at the end of the year rankings? While each of these can appear reasonable on the surface, the truth is they are all ridiculous.
Last Place Teams
This overall conference strength argument tells me that the powers that be must have done something to evaluate and compare the last place teams in each conference. Maybe they conducted 10,000 computer simulations of Vanderbilt vs. Tulane, Duke vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, Iowa State vs. UTEP, Indiana vs. Kent State, Rutgers vs. Northern Illinois, and Oregon State vs. New Mexico State (in the early to mid 1990s these were the perennial losers). The results of these computer simulations must have been so compelling that any reasonable person would look at them and say, “You know, if the WAC champion had to play Iowa State instead of UTEP, then I would support automatic qualifying status for the WAC champion. I mean look at last year (1994). A win over Iowa State (0-10-1) was much more impressive than a win over UTEP (3-7-1).” Reality check: The competitiveness of the worst team in the conferences was never discussed and it had no bearing on handing out the automatic qualifying status for conference champions. Reality check #2: A last place team is a last place team, and two wins in a season is two wins. There is no way to sugar coat bad teams.
Non-Conference Record
Since it wasn’t head-to-head competition between the last place teams, it must have been the better non-conference record by those bottom-of-the-bucket teams that made the overall conference strength so great. It is quite logical that in 1994 Wake Forest was only 1-7 in conference games because the ACC was so strong top to bottom. Look at the Demon Deacon’s 2-1 non-conference record. However, in 1994 Hawaii was 0-8 in the WAC because Hawaii was awful, never mind that Hawaii was 3-0-1 in non-conference games. Sorry, but that logic is grossly flawed! The facts reveal that Wake Forest beat Appalachian State 12-10, beat Army 33-27, and lost to Vanderbilt 35-14. Hawaii beat Pac-10 champion Oregon 36-16, Cal 21-7, and Southeast Missouri State 34-0, and tied Missouri 32-32.
The overall records at face value for the worst teams in the automatic qualifying conferences often do look better than their non-automatic qualifying conference counterparts. When you start to compare, it is evident that this difference can be attributed to the bad AQ teams playing more Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) teams or other bad FBS teams than the bad non-AQ teams. Am I the only one that cringes when a team that was 2-6 or 3-5 in league play goes to a bowl game because they were 4-0 or 3-1 against terrible non-conference opponents (case in point: Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and UCLA in 2009)? Any ground that is gained by playing in a conference with greater “overall conference strength” is lost by playing much softer non-conference schedules. In other words, the season schedule as a whole is usually comparable.
Rankings
We were wrong about comparing the worst teams from each conference, and we were wrong about the non-conference records. Therefore, the answer to the overall conference strength mystery must be those hallowed national rankings. Sadly, the rankings have lost their integrity and now have a decided BCS bias. In 1994, Utah was 10-2, second place in the WAC, and ranked number 10 in the final Associated Press poll. Every other team in the top ten had one loss or less, except one other two loss team, so I have to say the number 10 ranking was fair. Fast forward 10 years and let’s track how the Mountain West Conference (MWC) champion finished in the final BCS standings (Note: The MWC is comprised of virtually the same teams as the WAC was in 1994.)
2004: Utah was 11-0 and ranked number 6, behind one-loss Texas and one-loss California; teams that finished second in their conferences.
2005: TCU was 10-1 and ranked number 14. A 10-1 record for a conference champion from an automatic qualifying conference garnered a no. 3 and no. 11 ranking that year, while two-loss Georgia was no. 7, two-loss Ohio State was no. 4, and two-loss Notre Dame was no. 6.
2006: BYU was 10-2 and ranked number 20. However, the AQ conference champions with two losses were ranked numbers 5, 10, and 14, while two-loss LSU was no. 4 and two-loss Notre Dame was no. 11.
2007: BYU was 10-2 and ranked number 17. The AQ conference champions with 2 losses were ranked numbers 2, 3, 4, 7, and 9, while the teams ranked numbers 12 through 16 all had three or four losses.
2008: Utah was 12-0 and ranked number 6. Every team ahead of Utah had one loss, including its Sugar Bowl opponent Alabama. Utah won that game convincingly, 31-17.
2009: TCU was 12-0 and ranked number four. Every team ahead of TCU was undefeated as well. However, all season long, TCU was ahead of Cincinnati, an AQ conference champion, until the final standings when the Bearcats leapfrogged TCU.
The last six years the BCS standings have shown a clear bias towards teams from conferences labeled as automatic qualifiers. (If we looked at the first six years of the BCS the bias would be even more apparent.) A similar pattern is reflected in the individual polls—human and computer. The examples cited above only look at conference champions, but it has a trickle down effect on the overall conference. If voters are going to rank a non-AQ conference champion lower than the AQ conference champions, they will also rank the second and third place teams lower. A second place team cannot be in the top 10 if the conference champion isn’t even in the top 10. The third place team won’t even be ranked if the second place team is stuck in the 20s.
Although I love the rankings, they are very flawed because they are largely influenced by opinion. At present, the human voters’ opinions and the computer formulas are biased by the two misconceptions previously addressed, and other subjective elements like unreliable recruiting class ranks, theoretical strength of schedule ranks, and the historical success of a team. The BCS has caused the voters and computer programmers to draw a line of demarcation between schools in AQ conferences and schools in non-AQ conferences. If you happen to be in one of those six AQ conferences you are given the benefit of the doubt, but if you are on the outside you are handicapped. The outsiders have to repeatedly prove themselves to be considered legitimate, but if they slip up once along the way the voters and computer matrices hastily slam the outsider schools back to ground zero. An outsider must finish a season undefeated to play in a BCS game, while an AQ team can expect a spot in the national championship game if it finishes undefeated.
(NOTE: I used 1994 for many of my arguments because that is the last year before the Bowl Coalition morphed into the Bowl Alliance, and it is the time frame that would have been used when analyzing conference strength and weighing the merits of the decision to have automatic qualifying conferences.)
SEC
The SEC is currently considered the gold standard for football conferences. Interestingly, Chris Low, the ESPN.com blogger for the SEC compiled the record of each SEC team against teams in the final Associated Press and USA Today top 25 over the last five years. Here are the results:
• Florida – 14-9 (.609)
• LSU – 13-11 (.542)
• Alabama – 10-12 (.455)
• Auburn – 8-12 (.400)
• Georgia – 8-12 (.400)
• Tennessee – 5-17 (.227)
• Ole Miss – 4-14 (.222)
• South Carolina – 5-19 (.208)
• Arkansas – 3-20 (.130)
• Kentucky – 2-17 (.105)
• Vanderbilt – 2-17 (.105)
• Mississippi State 2-20 (.091)
Two SEC teams have a winning record. Seven teams (over half of the conference) average one or fewer wins per year against a top 25 team. The winning percentage for each of those seven teams is below 0.250 (1 out of 4). Thank you, Mr. Low, for providing more numbers to expose the fallacy that is “overall conference strength.”
At this point, we still have no evidence supporting the overall conference strength argument. The fact is that each conference has three or four teams at the bottom that are "easy" victories, and each conference has four or five teams that pose a legitimate threat to the eventual conference champion. All these arguments that one team had a harder conference schedule are not compelling arguments.
Proponents of the BCS and its predecessors use the cover up that the overall conference strength is so much better in certain conferences that the champions from those conferences merit preferential treatment (automatic qualifying status). As we can see, that cover up is full of holes, and the situation only gets bleaker when you look at the evidence against those supposed merits. The evidence will be on display tomorrow.
Part 3: The Evidence: Performance on the Field
Part 4: The Solution: It's About Conference Champions
Sources:
www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819366
www.shrpsports.com/cf/
espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/9443/tracking-the-sec-vs-the-final-top-25-polls
Once the Bowl Coalition and its successors adopted a platform that would use conference champions as a means to its end, and then gave automatic qualifying status to the champions of the participating conferences, these entities needed to justify that platform. Justifying this platform was easy to defend in the beginning. Few criticized them and most just glossed over the automatic qualifying element. As time has passed and very good teams from the other conferences were overtly excluded from playing in one of the bowls, greater scrutiny has been given to the automatic qualifying status for six conferences.
The automatic qualifying provision has been exposed as a bad cover up. The conferences with automatic qualifying status needed some incentive to join this pact, and the automatic qualifying status for their champion was the incentive. Of course, if you are going to extend privileges you need to justify those privileges. To justify this privilege and to try and keep the hidden agendas safe, the battle cry became “overall conference strength.” The overall conference strength of these six conferences is so much better than the rest of the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) conferences that these six conference champions earned, by play on the field, one of the ten (formerly 8) slots in the participating bowl games. The other conference champions were relegated to parading themselves for style points from the voters and computers in a competition with the second and third place teams from conferences with automatically qualifying champions for the four (formerly 2) remaining slots.
Overall conference strength!!! Are you serious? How do you quantify that? Do you compare the last place teams in each conference? Do you look at each team’s non-conference record? Do you look at the end of the year rankings? While each of these can appear reasonable on the surface, the truth is they are all ridiculous.
Last Place Teams
This overall conference strength argument tells me that the powers that be must have done something to evaluate and compare the last place teams in each conference. Maybe they conducted 10,000 computer simulations of Vanderbilt vs. Tulane, Duke vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, Iowa State vs. UTEP, Indiana vs. Kent State, Rutgers vs. Northern Illinois, and Oregon State vs. New Mexico State (in the early to mid 1990s these were the perennial losers). The results of these computer simulations must have been so compelling that any reasonable person would look at them and say, “You know, if the WAC champion had to play Iowa State instead of UTEP, then I would support automatic qualifying status for the WAC champion. I mean look at last year (1994). A win over Iowa State (0-10-1) was much more impressive than a win over UTEP (3-7-1).” Reality check: The competitiveness of the worst team in the conferences was never discussed and it had no bearing on handing out the automatic qualifying status for conference champions. Reality check #2: A last place team is a last place team, and two wins in a season is two wins. There is no way to sugar coat bad teams.
Non-Conference Record
Since it wasn’t head-to-head competition between the last place teams, it must have been the better non-conference record by those bottom-of-the-bucket teams that made the overall conference strength so great. It is quite logical that in 1994 Wake Forest was only 1-7 in conference games because the ACC was so strong top to bottom. Look at the Demon Deacon’s 2-1 non-conference record. However, in 1994 Hawaii was 0-8 in the WAC because Hawaii was awful, never mind that Hawaii was 3-0-1 in non-conference games. Sorry, but that logic is grossly flawed! The facts reveal that Wake Forest beat Appalachian State 12-10, beat Army 33-27, and lost to Vanderbilt 35-14. Hawaii beat Pac-10 champion Oregon 36-16, Cal 21-7, and Southeast Missouri State 34-0, and tied Missouri 32-32.
The overall records at face value for the worst teams in the automatic qualifying conferences often do look better than their non-automatic qualifying conference counterparts. When you start to compare, it is evident that this difference can be attributed to the bad AQ teams playing more Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) teams or other bad FBS teams than the bad non-AQ teams. Am I the only one that cringes when a team that was 2-6 or 3-5 in league play goes to a bowl game because they were 4-0 or 3-1 against terrible non-conference opponents (case in point: Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and UCLA in 2009)? Any ground that is gained by playing in a conference with greater “overall conference strength” is lost by playing much softer non-conference schedules. In other words, the season schedule as a whole is usually comparable.
Rankings
We were wrong about comparing the worst teams from each conference, and we were wrong about the non-conference records. Therefore, the answer to the overall conference strength mystery must be those hallowed national rankings. Sadly, the rankings have lost their integrity and now have a decided BCS bias. In 1994, Utah was 10-2, second place in the WAC, and ranked number 10 in the final Associated Press poll. Every other team in the top ten had one loss or less, except one other two loss team, so I have to say the number 10 ranking was fair. Fast forward 10 years and let’s track how the Mountain West Conference (MWC) champion finished in the final BCS standings (Note: The MWC is comprised of virtually the same teams as the WAC was in 1994.)
2004: Utah was 11-0 and ranked number 6, behind one-loss Texas and one-loss California; teams that finished second in their conferences.
2005: TCU was 10-1 and ranked number 14. A 10-1 record for a conference champion from an automatic qualifying conference garnered a no. 3 and no. 11 ranking that year, while two-loss Georgia was no. 7, two-loss Ohio State was no. 4, and two-loss Notre Dame was no. 6.
2006: BYU was 10-2 and ranked number 20. However, the AQ conference champions with two losses were ranked numbers 5, 10, and 14, while two-loss LSU was no. 4 and two-loss Notre Dame was no. 11.
2007: BYU was 10-2 and ranked number 17. The AQ conference champions with 2 losses were ranked numbers 2, 3, 4, 7, and 9, while the teams ranked numbers 12 through 16 all had three or four losses.
2008: Utah was 12-0 and ranked number 6. Every team ahead of Utah had one loss, including its Sugar Bowl opponent Alabama. Utah won that game convincingly, 31-17.
2009: TCU was 12-0 and ranked number four. Every team ahead of TCU was undefeated as well. However, all season long, TCU was ahead of Cincinnati, an AQ conference champion, until the final standings when the Bearcats leapfrogged TCU.
The last six years the BCS standings have shown a clear bias towards teams from conferences labeled as automatic qualifiers. (If we looked at the first six years of the BCS the bias would be even more apparent.) A similar pattern is reflected in the individual polls—human and computer. The examples cited above only look at conference champions, but it has a trickle down effect on the overall conference. If voters are going to rank a non-AQ conference champion lower than the AQ conference champions, they will also rank the second and third place teams lower. A second place team cannot be in the top 10 if the conference champion isn’t even in the top 10. The third place team won’t even be ranked if the second place team is stuck in the 20s.
Although I love the rankings, they are very flawed because they are largely influenced by opinion. At present, the human voters’ opinions and the computer formulas are biased by the two misconceptions previously addressed, and other subjective elements like unreliable recruiting class ranks, theoretical strength of schedule ranks, and the historical success of a team. The BCS has caused the voters and computer programmers to draw a line of demarcation between schools in AQ conferences and schools in non-AQ conferences. If you happen to be in one of those six AQ conferences you are given the benefit of the doubt, but if you are on the outside you are handicapped. The outsiders have to repeatedly prove themselves to be considered legitimate, but if they slip up once along the way the voters and computer matrices hastily slam the outsider schools back to ground zero. An outsider must finish a season undefeated to play in a BCS game, while an AQ team can expect a spot in the national championship game if it finishes undefeated.
(NOTE: I used 1994 for many of my arguments because that is the last year before the Bowl Coalition morphed into the Bowl Alliance, and it is the time frame that would have been used when analyzing conference strength and weighing the merits of the decision to have automatic qualifying conferences.)
SEC
The SEC is currently considered the gold standard for football conferences. Interestingly, Chris Low, the ESPN.com blogger for the SEC compiled the record of each SEC team against teams in the final Associated Press and USA Today top 25 over the last five years. Here are the results:
• Florida – 14-9 (.609)
• LSU – 13-11 (.542)
• Alabama – 10-12 (.455)
• Auburn – 8-12 (.400)
• Georgia – 8-12 (.400)
• Tennessee – 5-17 (.227)
• Ole Miss – 4-14 (.222)
• South Carolina – 5-19 (.208)
• Arkansas – 3-20 (.130)
• Kentucky – 2-17 (.105)
• Vanderbilt – 2-17 (.105)
• Mississippi State 2-20 (.091)
Two SEC teams have a winning record. Seven teams (over half of the conference) average one or fewer wins per year against a top 25 team. The winning percentage for each of those seven teams is below 0.250 (1 out of 4). Thank you, Mr. Low, for providing more numbers to expose the fallacy that is “overall conference strength.”
At this point, we still have no evidence supporting the overall conference strength argument. The fact is that each conference has three or four teams at the bottom that are "easy" victories, and each conference has four or five teams that pose a legitimate threat to the eventual conference champion. All these arguments that one team had a harder conference schedule are not compelling arguments.
Proponents of the BCS and its predecessors use the cover up that the overall conference strength is so much better in certain conferences that the champions from those conferences merit preferential treatment (automatic qualifying status). As we can see, that cover up is full of holes, and the situation only gets bleaker when you look at the evidence against those supposed merits. The evidence will be on display tomorrow.
Part 3: The Evidence: Performance on the Field
Part 4: The Solution: It's About Conference Champions
Sources:
www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819366
www.shrpsports.com/cf/
espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/9443/tracking-the-sec-vs-the-final-top-25-polls
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