Weekly Trivia: 2009-10 Bowl Challenge Cup

The answer to last week's trivia question, "What other FBS conferences (in addition to the Big Ten) had a three team tie for the conference championship?" is the Big East and the WAC. Uconn, Pitt, and West Virginia all had 5-2 conference records in the Big East. Hawaii, Boise State, and Nevada all had 7-1 conference records in the WAC. You could even throw in the Big 12 South, if you wanted; Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M all had a 6-2 conference mark.

One of the newer traditions in college football is the Bowl Challenge Cup awarded to the conference with the best win percentage in bowl games. This week’s trivia question is:

Which FBS conference won the Bowl Challenge Cup in 2009-10?

Leave your answer in the comments section. The answer will be revealed next Wednesday when a new question is asked.

For more trivia questions, visit the Trivia page.

Monday Musings: Ohio State Buckeyes Arrive Late and Leave Early, But Still Get The Job Done

Thanksgiving weekend is typically one of the greatest weekends of college football. This year was no exception.

1. Arrive Late, Leave Early. Looking at the box score to the Ohio State-Michigan game, the scoring by quarters stuck out to me. Ohio State scored 0, 24, 13, and 0 points. While the Buckeyes were held scoreless in the first and the fourth quarters, they did enough in the second and third to win. Of course, it helps that Michigan only made a cameo appearance in the second quarter.

2. Rewarding Mediocrity? Auburn jumping Oregon into the top spot in the BCS is like rewarding mediocrity. Oregon thumped a good Arizona squad 49-28. Auburn, on the other hand, fell behind 24-0. It took injuries and turnovers for the Tigers to claw their way back for a one point win. I am not trying to take anything away from the win for Auburn. It’s just that I don’t understand how you can move Auburn ahead of Oregon on the merits of the two games that they played.

3. Special Teams is 1/3 of the game. You hear coaches say it, and it is very cliché, but special teams directly decided the outcome of two games this weekend. The high profile game was Boise State-Nevada, where the Boise State kicker missed two “easy” field goals. One at the end of regulation that would have ended the game, and another in overtime that would have forced Nevada to score a touchdown to win. The other game was BYU-Utah. BYU had a 16-10 lead and forced Utah to punt midway through the fourth quarter. The Utah punter shanked the punt, but to Utah’s great fortune, hit a BYU cover man. Utah was able to recover the ball and eventually scored a touchdown to go ahead 17-16. BYU was still able to drive into field goal range to attempt a game winner with four seconds to play. Utah blocked the kick.

4. Stuffing the ballot. Two weeks after running up the score on Indiana, Wisconsin was at it again. This time they rolled up 70 points to Northwestern’s 23. Wisconsin needed all the votes they could get to assure itself the Big Ten AQ spot in the BCS. Since Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State all have identical 7-1 conference records, the team with the highest BCS ranking gets the BCS bid.

5. Is nothing sacred in the MAC? In back-to-back weekends, Ohio and Miami (OH) beat up Temple. Wins in those two games would have put Temple in the MAC championship game. Now the Owls are third in their division.

6. The new WAC is Conference USA? Forget the fact that the Mountain West Conference is adding Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and probably Hawaii. Conference USA is where you need to go to see wild and high scoring shootouts that the WAC became known for 20 years ago. Conf. USA games featured scores like 56-50, 45-38, and in every game, the winner scored over 30 points, except one (Rice had 28).

7. Fisher makes a splash. Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher is making a splash his first year as the head man in Tallahassee. The Seminoles beat Florida for the first time since 2003, and they will be playing in the ACC championship game for the first time since 2005.

8. Contract Extension? Will we be hearing about a contract extension for Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly? His Notre Dame Fighting Irish beat USC for the first time since 2001. When Charlie Weis lost to the Trojans 34-31 in 2005, he was rewarded with a generous contract extension.

9. Pulling for South Florida. There has to be little question that the Big East powers that be are silently rooting for a South Florida win this week over UConn coupled with a West Virginia win. If UConn wins, the Big East would be sending an unranked representative to the BCS.

10. Top heavy. The Mountain West Conference is often criticized by BCS bullies that it is a “top heavy” conference. Let’s throw that label on the Big Ten this year. Three teams are 11-1, after that the next best team is 7-5. How should I say this? A Big Ten conference schedule wouldn’t exactly qualify as, um, murderer’s row.

Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Poll Results: Who Will Win The Big XII?
College Football Haven Top 25, Week 13, 2010
Game Predictions, Week 13, 2010
Weekly Trivia: Texas A&M Aggies and Texas Longhorns Win-Loss Record
Heisman Hopefuls: Oklahoma State Cowboys Justin Blackmon Is Added To The List
Michigan Wolverines Will Fire Rich Rodriguez Next Monday

Monday Musings: Air Force Wins the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy

It was another great week of college football. It is weeks like these that make November the best month of the season. Everything is at stake and everything is possible.

1. Claiming the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. Air Force beat Army 42-22 to win their first Commander-in-Chief's trophy since 2002. Navy had won the last 7. Air Force beat Navy 14-6 back on October 2.

2. Bad day to be a two loss team. Two loss Florida State, Northwestern, Syracuse, Maryland, and North Carolina State all lost to teams with a worse record. Baylor was crushed by Oklahoma State. Iowa struggled to beat Indiana. Hawaii was overwhelmed by Boise State, and Fresno State was challenged by Louisiana Tech.

3. Mirror image. Cam Newton and Denard Robinson took the dual threat QB label to a different level this year. On Saturday, they posted very similar stats with their similar style of play. Newton attempted 21 passes and averaged 15.1 yards per attempt. Robinson attempted 20 passes and averaged 15.3 yards per attempt. Newton averaged 3.0 yards per rush, and Robinson averaged 3.3 yards. They both left their respective games early, however, Robinson left early due to injury, while Newton went to the bench with a commanding lead.

4. New life in Ames, Iowa. Since the Utah and Oklahoma games that ended 68-27 and 52-0 respectively, Iowa State has been a much improved team. They are 2-1 since those two losses, which includes beating Texas in Austin. The loss was a heart breaker to Nebraska in overtime.

5. Make Room for the Non-AQs. Boise State and TCU deserve serious consideration for the BCS national championship game. These two teams have played so well the last three years it is an injustice to not give them a chance on the biggest stage.

6. Lucky Number 55. Three traditionally strong programs that are having down years all posted big wins by scoring 55 points. Florida beat Vanderbilt 55-14, Georgia beat Idaho State 55-7, and BYU beat UNLV 55-7.

7. Moore than you can handle. Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore gave Hawaii more than they could handle. He reinserted himself in Heisman talk with a 30-37, 507 yards, and 3 TD performance against a good Hawaii team. Hawaii gave USC a competitive game (49-36) early this year, but Moore and company had the Warriors retreating all game long in a 42-7 blowout.

8. I am glad we're not in Kansas anymore. The Colorado Buffaloes saw a 28 point lead whisked away by a Kansas tornado. The Jayhawks scored 35 fourth quarter points to send the Buffaloes back to Colorado and helped blow them out of the Big 12.

9. Michigan needs a makeover. The mood in Michigan has been very gloomy the last two weeks. Rich Rodriguez was on the hot seat and no one thought the team was going in the right direction. By beating Illinois this week, the Wolverines are 6-3 on the season and will probably move to 7-3 with Purdue up next. They will go bowling and have a very good chance of finishing two, maybe three games improved from a year ago. There is only one problem in Ann Arbor: the defense. Fix that this offseason and Michigan can contend for the Big Ten title.

10. Wild, wild, East. The Big East Conference race is still wide open. While Pitt is 3-0 in the conference, no team has a conference record worse than 1-2. With so many conference games left to be played and all eight teams still in the running, things could get wild in the last month of the season.

Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Poll Results: Will Michgian win 6 games to be bowl eligible?
College Football Haven Top 25, Week 10, 2010
Game of the Week: TCU Horned Frogs at Utah Utes
Game Predictions, Week 10, 2010
Weekly Trivia: Georgia Bulldogs Starting 4-5
Heisman Hopefuls: Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley Eliminated

Monday Musings: LaMichael James is the Oregon Ducks’ Secret to Success

Well, it's not Monday anymore, but these are my musings after last weekend.

1. Play of the year. Forget Michigan State’s fake field goal to beat Notre Dame in overtime. Iowa defensive back Tyler Sash picked off Kirk Cousins at the end of the first quarter. Even though he was in front of the receiver, Sash made the decision to pitch the ball back to Micah Hyde. During the exchange the Michigan State player fell to the turf and Hyde was able to run across the field and down the opposite sideline for a 66-yard touchdown. That made the game 17-0. The route was on. This one play summed up everything that had happened up to that point in the game, and what would happen the rest of the way. This was Iowa’s day.

2. Secret to Success. Anyone else watch Oregon play and wonder how they have so many guys running all alone 15-20 yards down field? The answer is LaMichael James. James commands respect. He averages seven yards per carry. If you want to stop Oregon, you have to stop LaMichael James. When Oregon either hands the ball to James or fakes a hand off to him nearly every play, all 11 guys on defense are watching number 21. By the time the defense realizes James doesn’t have the ball, Oregon’s receivers are 5-10 yards past them.

3. One and done. Even though the BCS number 1 didn’t lose, there is a new team a top the BCS standings. No team has held the number one spot for more than one week. Number one Oregon plays Washington and number two Auburn plays Chattanooga this week. Those teams won’t exactly help your computer ranking. Number 3 TCU, however, plays number 5 Utah. With a win, will TCU become our fifth BCS number one in as many weeks?

4. Hello Helu. Roy Helu, Jr., Nebraska’s “forgotten” back reintroduced himself to the college football world and the Missouri secondary. Playing in the shadow of Taylor Martinez this year, Helu carried the load rushing 28 times for 307 yards and 3 TDs on Saturday. Those touchdowns were for 66, 73, and 53 yards.

5. Could not ask for more. Marcus Lattimore carried the Gamecocks to a victory against Tennessee. The Vols were staging a late comeback, but Lattimore took over and diffused the upset attempt. He ran for 40 and 19 yards on back-to-back carries to get South Carolina to the one yard line where Stephan Garcia snuck in to put the game away. Lattimore ended the day with 29 carries for 184 yards and 1 TD.

6. 42 points in 30 minutes and you still lose. Utah State scored 42 second half points but still came up short against Nevada. That’s because the Aggies were unable to score at all in the first half, while Nevada built a 35-0 lead. Nevada added 21 more in the second half.

7. U are done. Miami quarterback Jacory Harris left the game early with a concussion and is now questionable for this week. At 5-3, Miami’s season is over if Harris misses this week’s game against Maryland (6-2). With Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and South Florida waiting down the line, Miami might not make it to a bowl if Harris can’t come back.

8. One win away. Joe Paterno has reached 399 wins. His next win will get him to 400. Could happen as early as this Saturday against Northwestern, but should not be any later than November 20 against Indiana.

9. Forfeit your AQ spot. With no team in the top 25, this year, the Big East champion does not deserve to be in a BCS bowl. Pittsburgh (5-3) leads the conference and holds the tie breaker over Syracuse (6-2) and Rutgers (4-3). That means Pitt must lose two of its final four games to lose that AQ spot. No three loss team deserves to play in a BCS bowl.

10. Still on top. Michigan might be falling to the bottom of the Big Ten standings, but Denard Robinson is still on top of the rushing list. His 1,287 yards is 77 more than number two LaMichael James. Four more games to go for Robinson to make history.

Monday Musings: BCS = Broken Championship System

After another fantastic set of games this weekend for college football, here are my 10 thoughts for Week 8.

1. BCS = Broken Championship System. Two out of the three components in the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) are human polls—the USA Today Coaches poll and the Harris Interactive Poll. This has been done with the expressed intent to give the human element more control over the top teams than the computer element. The Oregon Ducks have been number one in each of these polls the last two weeks, yet Oregon is not number one in the BCS, for the second consecutive week. Oklahoma was number one last week, and Auburn is number one this week. Someone needs to fix those computers. Even with only one third the weight, they are deciding who is number one.

2. How was this game close? The Auburn Tigers out gained the LSU Tigers 526 to 243 in total offense on Saturday. Why did Auburn have to stop LSU on a fourth down with 3:20 to play to win this game? With 526 yards you should have a lot more points. For example, Oregon “only” needed 582 yards to get 60. Why couldn’t Auburn muster more than 24?

3. We are legit. The Missouri Tigers (7-0), the Baylor Bears (6-2), and the Syracuse Orangemen (5-2) made this statement Saturday. All had glossy to semi-glossy records, but no one knew how much stock to put into these records. After Missouri beat Oklahoma, Baylor beat #22 Kansas State, and Syracuse beat #20 West Virginia, we all know that they are legitimate leaders in their conferences.

4. Progress in Pullman. The Washington State Cougars still aren’t winning games, but at least they are scoring points and making some of these losses respectable. Just a 10 point loss to Stanford. USC is the only Pac-10 team to beat the Cougars by more than 20. That includes Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona.

5. Worth the wait? Tyrod Taylor is finally starting to play up to his sky high expectations. He is fourth in the nation in pass efficiency with a 171.1 rating—this is by far the highest rating of his career. He has 527 rushing yards with a 6.2 yard per carry average. Taylor already has 15 TD passes, which is two more than he had all of last season. His completion percentage is up almost 9 percent to 63.9%. He is also on pace for his highest passing yards in a season.

6. Short lived success. Cincinnati and Georgia Tech are the latest teams to join the list of teams having reached a BCS bowl and quickly fell back to middle of the pack or worse in their conferences. Wake Forest, Louisville, Kansas, and Illinois all had a spike in wins to play in a BCS game, but quickly fell below 0.500. After playing in BCS bowls last year, Cincinnati is currently at 3-4, and Georgia Tech is 5-3 with the meat of their schedule still to come.

7. Green means go. Teams with green as a school color rolled up impressive amounts of total offense. Baylor: 682 yards; Hawaii: 614 yards; South Florida: 590 yards; Oregon 582. It was even good for one player named green. Hawaii running back Alex Green ran for 172 yards and four touchdowns on just 14 carries.

8. Yellow means go faster? In driver’s ed I was taught that you are supposed to slow down and stop when the light changes to yellow. When Oregon changed from green to yellow home jerseys, they sped up. The Ducks put up 60 points Thursday night, but what was more impressive is that they did it with only 21:29 possession time. No Oregon drive was longer than 3:37.

9. Three in a row. For the third straight week a number one ranked team lost. Alabama was the first, Ohio State was the second, and now Oklahoma fell. Will Auburn or Oregon make it four this week? Oregon faces a stiffer test with USC, but don’t count out Mississippi from pulling off the unexpected upset of Auburn. No one expected the Rebels to beat number 4 Florida two years ago.

10. Which was worse? Virginia Tech’s loss to James Madison in week two, or Texas’ loss to Iowa State this week? Okay, this is a bit of a stretch to put those two losses in the same sentence, especially since one is a 4-3 FCS team and the other is a 4-4 FBS team. However, after Iowa State lost 68-27 and 52-0 in back-to-back weeks, how do the Longhorns not put up at least 30? Sure you’re coming off an emotional win over Nebraska, but this loss looks really, really bad.

Other recent posts on COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN:
Poll Results: Will either #1 Oklahoma or #2 Oregon play in the BCS National Championship Game?
College Football Haven Top 25, Week 8, 2010
Game of the Week: LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers
Game Predictions, Week 8, 2010
Weekly Trivia: LSU starting 7-0
Heisman Trophy Hopefuls, Week 7, 2010

Monday Musings: 10 Thoughts About Week 4

The first month of the 2010 college football season finished this weekend, and it showed. The games got tighter and the stakes have risen, but the fun and excitement keeps coming. Here are this week’s musings.

1. In the Pitts. The Pittsburgh Panthers were the clear favorites in the Big East this preseason. Now the Panthers sit at 1-2. The lone win came against New Hampshire. The second loss came at home to Miami, 31-3. Dion Lewis has gone from fab-freshman to sub-par-sophomore. Lewis is averaging less than 50 yards a game and just three yards even per rush.

2. Weapon of choice: the pistol. Nevada made the pistol offense famous, and they are riding its popularity, and success, to a 4-0 record and top 25 ranking. The Wolf Pack isn’t the only team using it these days. Alabama used the pistol regularly against Arkansas this weekend, and UCLA used the pistol to shoot down Bevo, 34-12.

3. How did Bowling Green manage to win a game? Michigan played musical chairs at quarterback, but the offense didn’t skip a beat. Denard Robinson and Tate Forcier both sustained injuries, but Michigan still rolled up 721 yards total offense and put 65 points on the board. Robinson had 128 yards rushing on five carries, Forcier was a perfect 12-12 passing the ball, and Michigan converted 10 of 12 third downs. The only way to win is to play a team with a worse defense or play a team with no offense, but Bowling Green does have one win on the year (44-28 over Marshall).

4. Who is better: Pac-10 or SEC? The Pac-10 might be giving the SEC competition for the title “Best Conference in College Football.” With the exception of Washington and Washington State, the Pac-10 is very strong. The other eight teams are a combined 23-8, and all eight losses are to undefeated teams. The Pac-10 has two upsets of top 10 teams to its credit as well.

5. The best QB in the ACC. Russell Wilson, North Carolina State, is asserting himself as the best signal caller in the ACC. Veterans Jacory Harris, Christian Ponder, and Tyrod Taylor were expected to be the cream of the ACC crop this year. Wilson has outplayed them all, to date, and he bested Josh Nesbitt on Saturday. After throwing a pick-6 that closed a 17 point lead to three, Wilson recovered and threw a 23-yard touchdown pass to push the lead back to 10.

6. Mississippi Mud Slide. The Ole Miss Rebels bounced back from an abysmal loss to Vanderbilt to inundate the Fresno State Bulldogs. Jeremiah Masoli was 8-12 passing for 153 yards, and Brandon Boldin ran for 228 yards on just 19 carries. Ole Miss had 578 yards of total offense and scored 55 points.

7. Will this be the year? The Nevada Wolf Pack has not beaten Boise State since 1998. Nevada hasn’t been 4-0 since 1991. They have been close the last few years. When Boise and Nevada meet on November 26, will the Wolf Pack pull of a monumental upset?

8. Good thing conference play is starting. With six teams in the Big 12 undefeated and seven teams in the Big 10 undefeated, it is a good thing that conference play is starting this week. Nothing is better to separate the contenders from the pretenders. We all remember how Michigan fell from 4-0 to miss a bowl last year. With Texas and Iowa not among the unbeaten teams in each conference, it is hard to believe that the win-loss records really reflect how good teams are at this point.

9. Moral victories are multiplying. The Florida International Golden Panthers notched another moral victory this weekend. FIU is 0-3 with a 19-14 loss to Rutgers, a 27-21 loss to Texas A&M, and a 42-28 loss to Maryland. The head coach said they were not going to take satisfaction in these moral victories, but they do represent how far FIU has come. Just two years ago, FIU lost 40-10 to Kansas, and 42-0 to Iowa.

10. Lost or won? Did Alabama win the game against Arkansas, or did the Razorbacks lose it? Arkansas led most of the game. They had a commanding 20-7 lead in the second half. Alabama cut that lead to three with six minutes to play. All Arkansas had to do was hold on to the ball and run the clock out. Not only did they fail to do that, but Ryan Mallett threw an interception on the third play of the drive. This miscue gift wrapped the winning touchdown for Alabama.

For the latest College Football Haven Top 25, click here.

Game Predictions, Week 1

The game predictions each week will be pretty simple and straight forward. I will select around 20-25 games that I find interesting, but that also represent each FBS conference. Feel free to chime in with your picks, or at least where you agree or disagree. If I leave out a game that really interests you, throw out your prediction for that.

Thursday, September 2
Pittsburgh at Utah: 24-21, Pitt
Northern Illinois at Iowa State: 21-14, Northern Illinois
Florida Atlantic at UAB: 17-10, UAB
Southern Mississippi at South Carolina: 31-24, South Carolina
USC at Hawaii: 38-7, USC
Minnesota at Middle Tennessee: 31-10, Minnesota

Friday, September 3
Arizona at Toledo: 21-17, Arizona

Saturday, September 4
TCU vs. Oregon State: 24-13 TCU
LSU vs. North Carolina: 28-14, LSU
Illinois vs. Missouri: 31-28, Missouri
Colorado vs. Colorado State: 21-13, Colorado
Kentucky at Louisville: 28-20, Kentucky
North Texas at Clemson: 34-13, Clemson
Troy at Bowling Green: 24-10, Bowling Green
New Mexico at Oregon: 28-10, Oregon
Purdue at Notre Dame: 21-13 Notre Dame
Memphis at Mississippi State: 31-10, Mississippi State
Cincinnati at Fresno State: 24-21, Fresno State
Western Michigan at Michigan State: 24-10, Michigan State
Connecticut at Michigan: 31-30, Michigan

Sunday, September 5
SMU at Texas Tech: 34-27, SMU

Monday, September 6
Virginia Tech vs. Boise State: 21-17, Boise State
Navy vs. Maryland: 31-17, Navy

If you missed College Football Haven's Top 25 this week, click here.
If you missed College Football Haven's Heisman Hopefuls this week, click here.
If you missed this week's trivia question, click here.

5 Step Drop: 2010 Big East Conference Football

For a time this offseason, it looked like the Big East conference would cease to play college football after this year. The Big East has survived and now has the chance to show, on the field, that it belongs as one of the sport’s premier conferences.

1. Who will win the conference? Pittsburgh Panthers. Using a signature Dave Wannstedt defense with an offense centered around Dion Lewis, Pitt will win the conference for the first time since 2004.

2. Who is the best player returning? Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh. The fab-freshman broke onto the scene last year with 1,799 yards (5.5 yards per carry) and 17 touchdowns. He rushed for over 100 yards in 10 of 13 games in 2009.

3. Which team will be the most improved? Louisville. New head coach Charlie Strong will take the first steps this year to right the ship. His defensive background will have a lot to do with this. Louisville surrendered 30 or more points in seven games (all losses) last year.

4. What will be the biggest surprise? Despite being the best player returning, Dion Lewis will not lead the Big East in rushing. This conference is full of strong runners. In fact, the leading rusher from all 8 Big East schools is back in 2010. No longer a secret, Lewis will have to fight for every yard this year. He will still have a good year. This is more about the overall strength of running backs in the Big East than it is about Lewis not producing.

5. Which coach is on the hottest seat? Doug Marrone, Syracuse. Okay, so he isn’t really on the hot seat, but he is the default choice. All Big East coaches are new to their school or they are having enough success that their jobs aren’t in jeopardy. In his first season (2009), Marrone led the Orangemen to four wins, which was their most in one season since 2006. He needs to show some progress this year, which might be difficult with a new starting quarterback. Unless Syracuse completely bombs the season, Marrone’s job is secure for 2011.

The Big 12 Will Be Fine

Let's say Nebraska and Missouri leave the Big 12 for the Big 10. Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado then follow suit and leave for the Pac-10. Now what? Well, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor, first of all, I can assure you that the sun will rise the next day, and when it does rise here is the plan for you.

The Big 12 leftovers will be in a favorable situation, for being leftovers. Being positioned in the middle of the country, they have the option now of picking and choosing from the strong schools on the west and east of them. Take your time, because you will have time, and look at the following candidates.

Mountain West (MWC)
Air Force, BYU, TCU, and Utah

Big East
Cincinnati, Louisville

Conference USA
Houston, SMU, Southern Mississippi, and Tulsa

These schools provide two key ingredients: 1) An expanded conference footprint, while maintaining the traditional Big 12 footprint, and 2) A conference that could still be an automatic qualifyier in the BCS. You can pick your size, anywhere from 9 to 12 teams (5-8 in addition to the four leftovers). Here are some scenarios:

Kansas
Kansas State
Baylor
Iowa State
Houston
TCU or SMU
Cincinnati
BYU or Utah
Air Force
As long as you take TCU over SMU, this conference should be stong enough for a BCS AQ. The only problem is that long term, SMU might be better at getting attention in Dallas/Ft. Worth and Texas in general. :

Kansas
Kansas State
Baylor
Iowa State
Houston
TCU or SMU
Cincinnati
BYU
Utah
Air Force
Louisville
Southern Mississippi
This will give you 12 teams to hold a championship game. You are taking a chance on BCS AQ status with Louisville, but the basketball showdowns with Kansas could be too irresistable. Hopefully with both BYU and Utah, the conference will be strong enough to get AQ status.

The moral of this post is to keep your heads high Jayhawks, Wildcats, Bears, and Cyclones. The Big 12 has a future, and it might not be all that bad.

Conference Expansion Craziness

Sorry I have not posted a real article or anything for such a long time. Thank you to those who still frequented the site and have been participating in the opinion polls.

We are in the middle of what is supposed to be the quiet time for college football. Letter of Intent day is long passed and the spring football practice sessions wrapped up weeks ago. Classes are out and the coaches can't have contact with the players. Yet, the conference expansion craze is generating enough headlines and discussion to make this as busy as the regular season. Let's quickly run down the popular possibilities for each conference in expansion.

Big 10
We will start with the one that is responsible for this mess.
Plan A is to add Notre Dame to reach 12 and hold a championship game.
Plan B seems to be to take teams from the Big 12 and Big East to reach 14. Top candidates include the Big 12's Nebraska and Missouri and the Big East's Rutgers, Syracuse, and Pitt.

Pac-10
Plan A is to change the rule for championship games to conferences with 10 teams, as opposed to the current minimum of 12.
Plan A-1 emerged just last weekend to add six Big 12 schools that would include Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and either Colorado or Baylor.
Plan B Add Colorado and Utah to reach 12 and get a championship game to leverage a better TV deal and start a Pac-12 Network.

Big 12
Plan A is to weather the storm by keeping the nucleus of Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. They would prefer not to lose any team, but if Missouri goes they will survive.
Plan B add BYU, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Arkansas, or another team NOT IN THE CURRENT BIG 12 FOOTPRINT to replace Missouri.

SEC
Plan A is to wait and see what happens knowing most likely they won't have to do anything.
Plan B is to expand to 16 teams by attacking the ACC and/or Big 12. Popular candidates include Texas, Texas A&M, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, and Georgia Tech.

Big East
Plan A is to give Notre Dame an ultimatum to join the conference for football or lose membership for its other sports. This is viewed as the best hope for survival, regardless of Notre Dame's response. The idea is to stop radical changes by forcing Notre Dame to join the Big 10 or, in their dreams, to stabilize the Big East by having Notre Dame as a football school.
Plan B die.
Plan C reach into the mid-majors again and repopulate the conference after the dust settles.

THE REST
Plan A is to wait and see. The Mountain West Conference (MWC) made this clear yesterday in a press conference announcing that Boise State would not be added. The ACC will only add teams if it loses teams or 16 becomes the new 12. The rest of the mid-majors won't expand unless one of the major conferences disbands and they feel they can capitalize with one of the once privileged "BCS schools."

With all these options on the table, which make the most sense and are the most likely?
Big 10 Plan A. Probably not going to happen. Notre Dame is being very vocal about wanting to stay independent, which means that is probably the message the boosters are sending. Notre Dame will listen to its boosters more than the Big 10.
Big 10 Plan B. Rumors are that Nebraska and Missouri to the Big 10 is immenent and could be annouced very soon. I think this has a high probability of happening, but not this month. Expansion is as big of a decision for these conferences as marraige is to an individual. The conferences will take the time that they need. These two teams would bring the total to 13 for the Big 10, which means one Big East team needs to come along. Pitt has the best football program, but offers the least new market. Rutgers has shown promise and the head coach is committed to the school, but how much market do the Scarlet Knights really bring? Syracuse has been putrid in football, but is great in basketball. However, the Orangemen seem to have the potential of delivering the most TV sets. I would rank the likelihood of these teams joining the Big 10 as 1-Rutgers, 2-Pitt, 3-Syracuse.
Pac-10 Plan A and A-1. Until the news broke about the 6 Big 12 schools I thought changing the championship game rule was going to happen and the Pac-10 would not change. If the numbers add up for Texas, I think the six Big 12 teams will end up joining the Pac. I have no expertise in projecting TV revenues, but I think there is a good chance that Texas would stand to profit with this arrangement with the Pac-10. If not, I think this opens a new can of worms for the top teams from the Pac and the top teams from the Big 12 to form a new 12-16 team conference hand picking the teams that would make the $$$ numbers work.
Pac-10 Plan B. What was once the most likely and reasonable scenario is as good as dead, I think. If this was such a great idea, the Pac-10 would not be bending over backwards to try and make other scenarios work.
Big 12 Plan A. Your guess is as good as mine about keeping the Big 12 nucleus together. It is hard to imagine that the Big 12 could cease to exist, but at this point we have to accept that it just might.
Big 12 Plan B. If Missouri is the only school to replace you can rule out Arkansas and Memphis as candidates. It won't happen. Cincinnati is very unlikely as well. I think it will come down to Louisville or BYU. Anyone who knows me will know that BYU would be my preference, but my gut feeling tells me that the Big 12 would prefer to expand east, not west. A presence east of the Mississippi could be very valuable.
SEC Plan A. This is the plan I envision the SEC following. Even if conferences expand to 16 teams now, the SEC is in a position to wait and see if these expansions really work. If they do, the SEC is strong enough to rip teams away from almost anyone.
Big East Plan A. I don't see the ultimatum happening. I really think the Big East will go down (Plan B) without much of a fight if two or more teams are taken. Raiding other conferences will prove fruitless because the Big East will be so weakened that BCS automatic qualifying status will be lost.

To summarize, the biggest players in the conference expansion game are: Notre Dame, Texas, and the NCAA rule for minimum teams required for a championship game. Notre Dame is capable of keeping the structure of eastern college football largely in tact by joining the Big East. Texas is capable of exploding the structure of college football nationwide by breaking up the Big 12. An NCAA rule change could keep everything status quo. Not only would it satisfy the Pac 10, it could satisfy the Big 10, or keep the Big 12 from expanding if one or two teams leave.

NFL Draft: Round 1 Reaction

While this is a college football blog, I think the NFL draft still fits the scope of college football. For me, college football starts with a player signing a letter of intent, and ends with a player being drafted or signing as a free agent, or just moving on to grad school or the less glamorous part of the workforce. With round one in the books, five things stuck out to me.

1. Sam Bradford was the number one pick. Talk about the biggest case of “much ado about nothing” that football has ever seen. Bradford could have been the number one pick a year ago, but he decided to come back. He was injured less than 30 minutes into the season and the frenzy started about how much money he lost and how he should not have come back. It turns out it was all a waste of time and energy. What more productive and constructive thing could have been done with all that time and energy?

2. Big night for the Big 12. I saw the USA Today front page headline, “1-2 for the Big 12,” but that is only half the story. The first four picks were from the Big 12, three from Oklahoma, as well as picks six, fourteen, nineteen, twenty-one, and twenty-four. Nine players in all. If I had the resources, I would do the research to find out if this is precedent setting.

3. Three WAC players drafted. Ryan Matthews (Fresno State) was drafted number 12 by the Chargers, Mike Iupati (Idaho) was drafted 17 by the 49ers, and Kyle Wilson (Boise State) was taken number 29 by the Jets. As you can see, only one played for Boise State, and he was the last one taken. For all the criticism that Boise State gets for playing in such a weak conference, the WAC produced more first rounders than the Pac-10 and the MWC, an equal number of first rounders as the Big 10 and the Big East, and just one less first rounder than the ACC.

4. Tim Tebow at number 25 was not shocking. It happens every year. Someone is taken much earlier than expected. We all know the adage “it only takes one.” I just want to know what inside information Denver had that made them move back into the first round. Denver had the 22nd pick. If they really wanted Tebow this bad, they could have taken him then, or else wait for the second round. Someone else must have been hot on Tebow and was going to select him before the night ended, even with Jimmy Clausen still available. No only was this pick not shocking, but I like it. With the success Kyle Orton had last year in the Denver system, then I don’t see why Tim Tebow won’t be able to have a good NFL career there.

5. Jimmy Clausen. Quarterbacks falling in the first round has become common, but they still make it out of the first round. Not this time. Clausen is still without a team. Was leaving Notre Dame early really the right decision? How smart does this make Jake Locker in Washington look?

The Evidence: Performance on the Field

This is the third part of the BCS Bash series. For part one, click here. For part two, click here.

We all come to a point in life when we have to make a decision, but the best choice is not clear. However, after we make and carry out that decision, we are able to judge if the decision we made. The Bowl Alliance decided to include the Big East, Big 8, Southwest, Atlantic Coast, and Southeastern conferences and to exclude the Western Athletic, Mid-America, and Big West conferences. The Bowl Alliance decided to have the participants in its three bowl games be the conference champions of the five included conferences, plus one at-large team. The BCS made these same decisions three years later. (Note: The Big 8 and Southwest conferences merged in 1996 to form the Big 12. For clarity, I will refer only to the Big 12 for the rest of this article.)

The declared intent was still to match number one and number two in a bowl game, but the actions of the organizers sent a clear message that participating in the elite bowls was for conference champions. If you are a champion you have automatic access. If you are not a champion get in line and hope your name is called. The automatic access, however, was not granted to all conference champions because not all conference champions were viewed as equal. Champions of the SEC, ACC, Big East, and Big 12 were in a higher class than the other conference champions. They were given automatic qualifying status because they were "extra special." The other conference champions were merely mediocre.

This is America and we have the freedom of speech, so there is nothing illegal with anyone making that statement. In America you are also innocent until proven guilty, so let’s take this to the judge.

Court is now in session. Charges have come against the Bowl Alliance/BCS for unjustly limiting the automatic qualifying status for conference champions to the ACC, SEC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, and Pac-10. The prosecution argues that for anyone to be a conference champion, they earn that distinction through their performance on the field of play. If these six conference champions are so superior to the other conference champions, their performance on the field of play will reflect that.

Exhibit one is the win-loss record and winning percentage before bowl games for the conference champions for the automatic qualifying conferences dating back to 1996.

Year....ACC....SEC....Big East..Big 10...Big 12...Pac-10

1996....11-0...11-1......10-1.........10-1.....8-4......11-0

1997....10-1...11-1.......9-3.........11-0....12-0......10-1

1998....11-1...12-0.......8-3.........10-1....11-2......10-1

1999....11-0...10-2......11-0..........9-2....11-1.......8-3

2000....10-1....9-3......11-0.........10-1....10-2......10-1

2001....10-1....9-3......11-0.........10-1....10-2......10-1

2002.....9-4...12-1......12-0.........13-0....11-2......10-2

2003....10-2...12-1......10-2.........10-2....11-3......11-1

2004....10-2...12-0.......8-3..........9-2....12-0......12-0

2005.....8-4...10-2......10-1.........10-1....12-0......12-0

2006....11-2...12-1......11-1.........12-0....11-2......10-2

2007....11-2...11-2......10-2.........11-1....11-2......10-2

2008.....9-4...12-1......11-2.........11-1....12-1......11-1

2009....11-2...13-0......12-0.........10-2....13-0......10-2

Total 143-26..157-17..143-19....154-17..157-19...145-17

Win % 0.846...0.902...0.882.....0.901...0.892....0.895

Relevance: The ACC champion had the lowest winning percentage (0.846) among the conference champions awarded automatic qualification to a BCS bowl. If this winning percentage is significantly higher than that of the conference champions not awarded automatic qualification to a BCS bowl, then the BCS is justified for excluding those other conferences.

Exhibit two is another table that shows the win-loss record and winning percentage before bowl games for the conference champions for the non-automatic qualifying conferences dating back to 1996.

Year...MWC*...WAC**...MAC...Conf. USA

1996...13-1.......8-3........8-3.........8-3

1997...10-2.......6-5.......10-2.........8-3

1998...11-1.......8-3.......11-1........11-0

1999....8-3.......8-4.......12-0.........8-3

2000....9-2......10-1........7-5.........9-2

2001...12-1.......7-4........9-2........10-2

2002...10-3......11-1.......10-2.........9-2

2003....9-2......12-1.......12-1.........9-3

2004...11-0......11-0........9-3........10-1

2005...10-1.......9-3........7-5.........8-4

2006...10-2......12-0........9-4........10-3

2007...10-2......12-0........8-5........10-3

2008...12-0......12-0........8-5.........9-4

2009...12-0......13-0.......11-2.........9-4

Total 147-20...139-25......131-40.... 128-37

Win%..0.880...0.847.......0.766......0.775

* = The Mountain West Conference (MWC) did not exist prior to the 1999 season. The data used for 1996-1998 are the records of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) champion since the MWC members competed in that conference at that time and all WAC champions during that time are now members of the MWC.
** = Most of the teams comprising the WAC today were members of the Big West Conference from 1996-1998, so the records of the Big West Champion was used for those years.

(Note: The Sun Belt Conference did not exist prior to 2001, so for lack of data, the Sun Belt Conference was not used in this comparison.)

Relevance: On the field of play, both the MWC and the WAC champions, over a 14 year period, have sustained better on the field performance than the ACC champion. The WAC champion’s winning percentage was 0.001 better, and the MWC champion’s winning percentage was 0.034 better. It is also important to point out that the MWC champion’s wining percentage was only 0.002 less than the Big East champion. The performance on the field of play by the WAC and the MWC champions has exceeded that of the ACC. The MWC champion is even on par with the Big East champion.

Exhibit three is the results of the “BCS Busters” against teams from automatic qualifying conferences.

2004: Utah 35, Pittsburgh 7 (Pittsburgh was the Big East Champion)
2006: Boise State 43, Oklahoma 42 (Oklahoma was the Big 12 Champion)
2007: Georgia 41, Hawaii 10
2008: Utah 31, Alabama 17
Overall Record: 3-1 (2-0 versus automatic qualifying conference champions)

Relevance: On the field of play, non-automatic qualifying conference champions have won 75% of the time they have played in BCS bowl games against teams from AQ conferences, and 100% of the time these non-automatic qualifying conference champions have played automatic qualifying champions.

While Hawaii lost to Georgia by 31 points that does not hurt my case. Teams from conferences with AQ status have lost by 31 points or more in Bowl Alliance or BCS games on six occasions.

Florida lost to Nebraska by 38 points in 1995
Florida State lost to Florida by 32 points in 1996
Notre Dame lost to Oregon State by 32 points in 2000
Maryland lost to Florida by 33 points in 2001
Oklahoma lost to USC by 36 points in 2004
Illinois lost to USC by 32 points in 2007

The BCS’s decision to exclude cannot be justified by Hawaii’s blowout loss since it is not the only time that a BCS game has had such an outcome. In fact, Hawaii did not have the greatest losing margin of all teams in BCS games in 2007. On the other side of the coin, Utah won in 2004 by 28 points, which begs the question, “Why would such a superior conference champion lose so lopsidedly?”

Exhibit four is the changes in conference make up. Since the Bowl Alliance formed in 1995, the composition of the Big 8, the ACC and the Big East have all changed. The Big 8 added teams from the SWC and the ACC swiped teams from the Big East. The Big East, however, reached into the pile of leftovers (teams not in a conference granted automatic qualifying status) and added three teams. Since the Big East added teams, three out of five years one of the former outsiders won the conference.

Relevance: While the Big East conducted research to determine the best candidates to add to the conference, the Big East did not need authorization by the BCS. The BCS did not conduct its own analysis of performance on the field of play and conclude who were the three most qualified teams in college football for membership in the exclusive BCS circle. The precedent established in 1995 changed the rules for conference expansion. The ACC added teams from a fellow AQ conference, but if a conference was going to reach outside the AQ boundaries, then the BCS should have to approve the move.

Furthermore, the immediate success of these new Big East members shows that, on the field of play, teams from conferences without an automatic qualifying conference champion are NOT inferior to the teams in conferences with an automatic qualifying conference champion.

Exhibit five is that the expressed purpose of the Bowl Alliance, which the BCS continued, was to create a system that would match the number one and number two ranked teams in the same bowl game.

Relevance: On two occasions (Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003) teams who were not conference champions played for the national championship. To play for the national championship, a team must be ranked either number one or number two. Since teams who were not conference champions qualified for the national championship game, the BCS showed that automatic qualifying status for conference champions was not necessary to accomplish its intent. Therefore, one or more of the parties involved in creating the Bowl Alliance and the BCS were working to protect special interests by creating the automatic qualifying status for a limited number of conferences in college football.

Closing Arguments: The defendant will, undoubtedly, attempt to counter my evidence with the strength of schedule for teams from the conferences with automatic qualifying champions. I rebut that argument by reiterating what was covered yesterday regarding “overall conference strength.” This notion of “strength of schedule” is a false perception born out of misconceptions that have, unfortunately, corrupted all forms of rankings and ratings for college football. When the issue is automatic qualifying status for conference champions, the only evidence that matters is performance on the field.

Specific to exhibit three, the defendant might rebut by incorporating regular season head-to-head competition of teams from conferences with automatic qualifying status versus teams from conferences without automatic qualifying status. That is irrelevant evidence. First, any head-to-head comparison should be between conference champions in the year that both teams were conference champions. Second, head-to-head competition is not a criterion used for selection of any team to the BCS bowls. USC and Notre Dame have both played in BCS bowls in the same year, regardless of the results on the field of play in the regular season. The same can be said for Florida and Florida State. Even in 2008, USC embarrassed Ohio State during the season, but both played in BCS bowls. The tables in exhibits one and two include all regular season games. Any head-to-head competitions that occurred are a part of those records. Bringing in regular season head-to-head competition is another bad cover up. It would be like lying: once you lie, you have to use another lie to cover it up. Regular season head-to-head competition would be using an injustice to cover up the original injustice.

The evidence I have presented clearly shows that two conference champions that don’t have automatic qualifying status have performed equally on the field of play to the conference champions that do have automatic qualifying status.

When we find out that we made a bad decision, we take corrective action. The BCS needs to take corrective action. Like most corrective action, it will hurt the wrongdoer. Fortunately in this case, the corrective action is simple. For now, though, we have had enough for one day. Come back tomorrow for The Solution.

Part 4: The Solution: It's About Conference Champions

Sources:
www.shrpsports.com/cf/
www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4809942

The Scam: Automatic Qualifying Conference Champions

Note: This is the first part of a four part series on the Bowl Championship Series. Links to the other three parts are found at the end of this article.

The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) is a scam. Why? The provision that grants automatic qualifying status to certain conference champions. The BCS toots its own horn about how great it is because it guarantees that the number one and two teams will play in a bowl game to finish each year. Okay, so where does the need for automatic qualification come in? First a little history, so we can understand the real answer to this question.

Historically, bowl games had agreements with one or two conferences for the right to host certain teams in their games at the end of the year. The bowl games operated completely independent of any entity that ranked the top teams in college football. As attention to both bowl games and the rankings increased, the desire to see the top two teams play each other at the end of the year increased.

In 1992 the Bowl Coalition was created between the Big East Conference, Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Big 8, Southeastern Conference (SEC), Southwest Conference (SWC), and Notre Dame with the expressed intent to create better possibilities for a bowl game to feature number one and two. This coalition involved the Cotton, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, Gator, and John Hancock bowls.

The Bowl Coalition was dumped in 1995 for the Bowl Alliance. The Bowl Alliance consisted of the same five conferences, but reduced bowl participation to the Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta bowls. Each conference champion would automatically qualify for one of these bowls and one at-large team would be selected. Theoretically, that at-large team could be from any conference in NCAA Division 1-A football.

That brings us to the BCS. The BCS brought all the “major” conferences and bowl games together for the first time in 1998. The Pac-10, the Big 10, and the Rose Bowl joined the others to form the BCS. In 1996, the Big 8 and SWC had consolidated, more or less, to form the Big 12, so the official make up of the BCS was the Big East, the ACC, the SEC, the Big 10, the Big 12, the Pac-10, and Notre Dame, as well as the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, and Orange bowls. The BCS continued the automatic qualifying status for champions from the six participating conferences. Notre Dame could automatically qualify if it had 9 wins and was ranked in the BCS top 10. Teams from outside the six participating conferences could automatically qualify if they were ranked in the BCS top 6.

In most cases, I give people the benefit of the doubt and believe they act with good intentions. In the case of the Bowl Coalition/Bowl Alliance/BCS, it is pretty hard to accept that some other interests besides matching the top two teams in the same bowl were not driving this process. All that would have been necessary to accomplish the declared intent was to have an agreement between the bowls that the bowl with the number two ranked team would release its rights to that team so that team could play in the same bowl as the number one ranked team. Of course the bowl losing the number two ranked team would want retribution for its losses, but I think retribution would be a minor detail that could be worked out easily and beneficial to all. Furthermore, if we are talking about having the top two teams play, why wasn’t the Bowl Coalition, Bowl Alliance, and BCS all inclusive—all bowls, all teams. When was it ever decreed that a team from a conference with ties to one of the other bowls could not be number one or two? If a team from one of these outsider conferences and bowls was number one, why would that team not deserve to play for the championship in its affiliated bowl? Limiting the conferences and bowls involved and by giving automatic qualifying status to those conference champions was self-serving and collusive. The real intent was to have number one and number two play every year in a bowl game and to ensure that number one and two were teams from this select group of conferences.

Digging into history a little further makes this whole bowl confederation look very sketchy. I am still scratching my head wondering how the Big East and the ACC were able to gain favored nations status if the organizers’ motives were pure.

First, the Big East did not even exist until 1991 (Bowl Coalition began in 1992), so there was little to no historical evidence that this conference was important in accomplishing the objective to have number one and number two play in a bowl. Now, it is true that the University of Miami, Florida, technically was a Big East member and won the national championship in 1991 (as well as in 1983, 1987, 1989 as an independent), the Hurricanes played only two conference games that year. Now that 20 years have passed, the evidence we do have is that the Miami Dynasty unraveled shortly after it became affiliated with a conference.

Second, the ACC was a glorified Western Athletic Conference (WAC) before the 1992 season. Sure, Clemson won the national championship in 1981 and Georgia Tech split the national championship in 1990, but that is it. Once in a decade the ACC champion was relevant. The WAC was having the same level of success as the ACC during this timeframe. In 1992, however, Florida State left the ranks of the independents to join the ACC. Florida State was 53-8 and ranked in the top 5 from 1987-1991. Again, the evidence we have post-1991 is that the ACC, as a whole, was mediocre; the Seminoles dominated the ACC for the next decade. Furthermore, the ACC has never fielded an at-large BCS team.

Let’s be honest with ourselves and accept that the only reason the Big East is an automatic qualifying conference is Miami, and the only reason for the ACC is Florida State. No entity stating that it was trying to match number one and number two in a bowl game would have any credibility if it left these two national powerhouses out. However, all credibility would be lost if several schools were being hand picked like Notre Dame was.

Now, back to the original question, where does the need for automatic qualification come in? The short answer is it is not needed, all it is merely a cover up. I will uncover this cover up tomorrow. Don’t miss it!

Part 2: The Cover Up: Overall Conference Strength
Part 3: The Evidence: Performance on the Field
Part 4: The Solution: It's About Conference Champions

Sources:
www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819366
www.shrpsports.com/cf/

MORE CONFERENCE EXPANSION THOUGHTS

Since conference expansion usually takes months and years to happen, this will probably be a hot topic until September. There are about a million angles to take on this topic. Today, I will elaborate on three: TCU going to the Big 12, the Big 10 targeting ACC or SEC teams, and the impact on the BCS.

1.TCU to the Big12

Since it appears that the Big 12 is going to be hit by either the Big 10 (Missouri or Nebraska) or the Pac-10 (Colorado) the Big 12 will need to replace one or two schools, or shrink to 10 teams. TCU seems to be a perfect fit geographically and competitively. It doesn't hurt that TCU has tradition with several Big 12 schools as a former Southwestern Conference (SWC) member. That, however, is the exact reason I would be leery, if I were TCU, to join the Big 12. TCU was kicked to the curb while the then Texas Governor struck a deal to bind membership of one state school to the inclusion of three others. In other words, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Baylor are a package deal. If one is in they all are in, if one is out they all are out. As the last one in, TCU would be the first one out if the Big 12 ever decided another rising team (Houston, Tulsa) became more desirable in the future and rather than increase to 13 teams it wanted to stay an even 12. Then again, this is TCU, who was rejected by the other eight teams in the Mountain West Conference (MWC) ten or so years ago when they left the Western Athletic Conferenc (WAC). When the MWC came calling five years later, TCU fully embraced reuniting with the eight schools who felt they were better off without the Horned Frogs.

2. Big 10 targeting ACC or SEC schools

Everyone seems set that the Big 10 will expand with either a Big 12 North team or with a Big East team. Money seems to be the biggest reason behind this round of expansion talks, and the Big 10 seems to be on par with the SEC in that regard, even if the performance on the field has not reflected it. Isn't there a middle of the pack SEC team that would provide just as much added revenue as Missouri or Pitt and would also want to go to the Big 10 to compete better in football? Kentucky would help Big 10 basketball and Kentucky football might fare better in the Big 10. It is also situated nicely geographically. What about Boston College from the ACC? Huge media market, and no strong roots in the ACC. Georgia Tech? The Yellow Jacket's big rival (Georgia) is already in a different conference, and the Atlanta media market would be a nice catch.

3. The Impact on the BCS

Lost in all of the conference expansions and realignments is how this impacts the "solid" foundation of the BCS. The BCS formed itself on the premise that the best football teams were in the ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, and Pac-10. The ACC and Big East realignments last decade resulted in three teams (Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida) that were originally considered outsiders to become insiders. By the time this potentially catacalysmic round of conference expansion finishes we could have another three teams "promoted" to the BCS level. Who says that these six teams (the former three and the hypothetical future three) were the most deserving? It is unfair if a team like Boise State is left out of automatic qualification status, but a team like South Florida gains automatic qualification status. Boise State has done everything in its control (win on the field), but South Florida has all the uncontrolable variables (location, media market). Conferences expand for money, but the BCS was designed, on the surface, to get the top two teams to play each other. With a new composition, who says the Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10, ACC, SEC, and Big East of 2012 will be worthy of the automatic qualification status they gained in 1998? The BCS should be null and void and a new system put in place after the conference expansions conclude, unless, like conference expansions, the BCS is really all about money.

COACHING: COACHES ON THE HOT SEAT

With the temperatures sinking across the country, this is the time of year that the heat is turning up on some college football coaches. Memphis (2-7) and Western Kentucky (0-9) have already fired their coaches. Who else can we expect to join the unemployment ranks within the next month?

1. Charlie Weis, Notre Dame: He barely survived last year. Supposedly he has the talent on the roster that should have resulted in a BCS birth. Now, the Fighting Irish have three losses and no hope for the BCS.
2. Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville: When he took over Louisville had just entered elite territory with an Orange Bowl win. The last three years Louisville has won a total of 14 games. Rumor is that his relationship off the field with school administration is not any better.
3. Mike Locksley, New Mexico: The Lobos are win less and to make matters worse he has some anger management issues. It does not matter that it is his first year, the program cannot maintain dignity by retaining Locksley for another year.
4. Dan Hawkins, Colorado: He predicted 10 wins at the beginning of the year. For most of the year they have been the laughing stock of the Big 12. He hasn’t helped himself by having his son start at quarterback. The tricky part of this one is that the Colorado Athletic Department is so strapped for cash right now that it might be impossible to buy out Hawkins’ contract, so he might have a job for one more year.
5. Al Groh, Virginia: Virginia has wallowed in mediocrity for the last five years, with the exception of 2007. The embarrassing start to this year coupled with the current three game losing streak have made this firing almost a foregone conclusion.
6. Paul Wulff, Washington State: Has any team in college football been as bad as Washington State over the last two years? The Cougars only won two games last year against win less Washington and FCS Portland State. This year a lone overtime win is the only time Washington State has walked of the field victorious. I don’t see any signs that this program is ready to make a turn in the right direction.
7. Rich Rodriguez, Michigan: Although the Wolverines have already improved their win total from 3 to 5 with two games to go. The problem is that Michigan does not stand much of a chance to win those games, and that all 5 of Michigan’s losses this year have come to Big 10 teams. In Ann Arbor the faithful expect to be the best in the Big 10 and Michigan isn’t winning conference games.

Hopefully, the coach of your favorite team is not listed above. Who else do you think should be on the list?

ANOTHER BCS SMOKESCREEN

With the various BCS debates raging on, staunch BCS supporters are now turning to a new line of reasoning to justify excluding the Mountain West Conference (MWC) from being an automatic qualifying conference: overall conference strength. In 2008, the MWC champion and runner-up were ranked above the Big East and Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) champions. Naturally the question has followed: Is the MWC better than the Big East or the ACC? Most people seem satisfied that the ACC is clearly better than the MWC. However, when compared to the Big East, many feel that the MWC is slightly better on top (BYU, TCU, and Utah), but the bottom 2/3 of the Big East is better than the bottom 2/3 of the MWC. Therefore, the Big East automatic BCS bid is justified.

Can any other argument be more bogus? Name a “Big Six” conference that does not experience significant drop off after its top three teams.

• ACC:
  The ACC has never fielded two BCS teams. Virginia Tech is the preseason favorite. A lot of people are high on Georgia Tech, and Florida State seems to be a quality team again. In this case, the drop off starts before we leave the top three teams. Only Virginia Tech is considered as good enough to play in a BCS game.
• BIG 12:
  Texas and Oklahoma are neck and neck at the top of the conference, and this year Oklahoma State looks to be number three. After that, Texas Tech has a lot of question marks, and the whole North Division is closer to mediocrity than being contenders.
• BIG 10:
  Historically, the Big 10 has been dominated by Ohio State and Michigan, with one other team always making a strong showing. The rest are not considered competition. Why else is everyone assuming the Big 10 race title will be decided by an undefeated Penn State playing undefeated Ohio State (at least undefeated in conference play)?
• PAC-10:
  USC is the undisputed number one followed by Oregon and Cal. Again, the drop off starts immediately. That is more because USC is so dominant and not so much because Oregon and Cal are weak. Is there any other Pac-10 team that you expect to post more than 8 wins?
• BIG EAST:
  The parity in the Big East is so great, how do you start with three teams as the top three? I guess West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Rutgers are the three best, but is there much difference between them and South Florida, Cincinnati, and Connecticut? This is not an all-star line up that screams “elite conference” to anybody.
• SEC:
  Here you might have a case that beyond the top three. Florida, Ole Miss, and Alabama seem to be the top three this year, followed by Georgia, and LSU. The teams after that are not considered to be on the same plane.
  
  

The point is the BCS is about conference champions. The conference champions of these six conferences get automatic bids, not the third place team, the sixth place team, or the last place team. The champions are not scrutinized on who they lost to, either. They could lose to the worst team in the league or the second place team, it does not matter.

My biggest concern is that the MWC will fight this criticism by expanding to include Boise State. With all due respect to the Broncos, that is the wrong way to go. The MWC is good the way it is. As I have explained three strong teams at the top is as good as everyone else. It is time to stop the hypocrisy.

USA Today Top 25 Preseason Poll

When the preseason USA Today Top 25 (Coaches Poll) was released a few weeks ago, the coaches, definitely unintentionally, poured fuel on the fire that is BCS debate. The Mountain West Conference (MWC) had three teams ranked while the Big East had none. TCU was number 17, Utah was 18, and BYU was 24. The leading vote getter for the Big East was Cincinnati which would be number 29 if the rankings went that high. The BCS debate reached new proportions at the end of last season. The last thing that the BCS needed was for preseason rankings like this. Keep in mind this is the USA Today poll, which is part of the BCS formula.

Before going on, I am one who feels the MWC is better than the Big East and the MWC Champion can hold its own with the “Big Six” conference champions. I would love to see multiple MWC teams ranked above the Big East champion at the end of the year. However, MWC/“mid-major” fans need to temper our jubilee. First, a whole season needs to be played. Preseason expectations don’t put points on the scoreboard. Second, the Big East champion will be ranked at season’s end. How high? No one knows.

The Big East has no clear favorite. This is what the preseason USA Today Top 25 is reflecting. As I noted, Cincinnati was number 29 with 90 points, followed by Pittsburgh at 30 with 64 points, West Virginia at 31 with 55 points, and Rutgers at 32 with 51 points. It looks like most voters have at least one Big East team in their Top 25. They just don’t agree on which one is the best. As the season progresses, and one team separates itself from the others, the points that these four teams share will migrate to the one with the separation. The point total for these four teams is 260 points, which would be good for number 21 in the poll. At this point, the voters feel the Big East champion will be the 21st best team in the country. This is still good news for MWC fans, because two teams are still ranked above 21. Come season’s end, though, there is a 95% chance the Big East champion will be closer to number 12 than 21. Last year Cincinnati was ranked number 12 in the final BCS polls, as well as the final regular season USA Today poll. With an 11-2 won-loss record, that ranking can’t be criticized; it just was not foreseen in August. Expect the same this year, unless the Big East champion has three or four losses.

What’s the bottom line? Yes, the perception of the MWC is improving, but they have to back it up on the field. The MWC is in a position to have its champion ranked higher than the Big East champion again this year, but the MWC champ’s won-loss record will need to be two losses maximum.

The USA Today Top 25 can be found at: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm