5 Yard Out: Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Now that the 2010 season is officially over, it is time to wrap it up. At the start of the year COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAVEN previewed each conference with a “5 Step Drop.” We will look back at those predictions to see how this year shaped up with what was expected in a series of “5 Yard Out” columns over the next few weeks. First up, the Southeastern Conference (SEC).

Game Predictions: BCS Bowls

It is time to give my predictions for the BCS bowls. To view my non-BCS bowl predictions, click here.

January 1
Rose Bowl
TCU vs. Wisconsin, 28-21 TCU
Hawaii is the only non-AQ team to ever lose a BCS bowl game.

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs. UConn, 27-24 UConn
Until Oklahoma wins a BCS game that they should, I will keep picking the underdog.

January 3
Orange Bowl
Stanford vs. Virginia Tech, 35-21 Stanford
The Hokies have finally met their match.

January 4
Sugar Bowl
Arkansas vs. Ohio State, 28-24 Ohio State
The Buckeyes finally beat a SEC team, but was the controversy worth it?

January 10
BCS National Championship Game
Oregon vs. Auburn, 36-34 Oregon
A surprise 2 point conversion will be the difference.

Game of the Week: Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks

The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Arkansas Razorbacks have done their part so far to make this game what we all wanted it to be. These two undefeated SEC West teams square off in a game that could decide who plays in Atlanta for the SEC championship, and possibly a shot at the BCS national championship game.

Ryan Mallet has met the high expectations that everyone had for him this year. He is the first quarterback to throw for 1,000 yards, and his 40-yard touchdown pass against Georgia with 15 seconds left won the game last week. Defense was a weakness for the Razorbacks a year ago. The 2010 edition appears to be better, but has it improved enough?

Alabama has improved on offense. Greg McElroy has a pass efficiency rating of 200. The Crimson Tide have three running backs with over 150 yards rushing. The new defense has looked very strong, however, it hasn’t really been tested.

Last year, Alabama overwhelmed Arkansas 35-7. Neither Mark Ingram nor Trent Richardson had a big game running the ball. It was McElroy having the best game of his short career throwing for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Crimson Tide shutdown the Arkansas offense that had averaged over 500 yards per game in the first two games of 2009.

Alabama has won its last 18 conference opening games. This is Arkansas’ best opportunity to get a win against Alabama. Ryan Mallet may be gone next year, the game is in Fayetteville this year, and Alabama has an untested defense. I expect this game to go down to the wire.

If you missed College Football Haven's Top 25 this week, click here.
If you missed Monday Musings this week, click here.
If you missed College Football Haven's Heisman Hopefuls this week, click here.
If you missed this week's trivia question, click here.
If you missed this week's game predictions, click here.

Heisman Trophy Hopefuls, Week 1, 2010

The race is still wide open after week one. Several players posted eye-popping stats, however, they were playing vastly inferior competition. While some players had un-Heisman worthy performances, I don't plan to take anyone off the list until week 3. It is very rare that a player has an outstanding game every time he steps on the field. I added a section at the end called "On the radar." These are players who shined but were not on the original list. If they continue to play the way they did Saturday, then they will be added to the list soon. Terrell Pryor, Christian Ponder, Jacory Harris, Ryan Mallett, and Case Keenum form the lead pack right now, but Matt Barkely would be my early leader simply because Hawaii was a more formidable foe. Those who need to step it up are Jaquizz Rodgers, Jake Locker, Ryan Williams, Dion Lewis, and Landry Jones.

Mark Ingram, Alabama
2009: 271 rushes, 1,658 yards, 17 TD
2010: --
Last: Did not play vs. San Jose State

John Clay, Wisconsin
2009: 287 rushes, 1,517 yards, 18 TD
2010: 17 rushes, 123 yards, 2 TD
Last: 17 rushes, 123 yards, 2 TD

Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech
2009: 293 rushes, 1,655 yards, 21 TD
2010: 21 rushes, 44 yards, 2 TD
Last: 21 rushes, 44 yards, 2 TD

Jaquizz Rodgers, Oregon State
2009: 273 rushes, 1,440 yards, 21 TD
2010: 18 rushes, 75 yards, 1 TD
Last: 18 rushes, 75 yards, 1 TD

Dion Lewis, Pitt
2009: 325 rushes, 1,799 yards, 17 TD
2010: 25 rushes, 75 yards, 1 TD
Last: 25 rushes, 75 yards, 1 TD

Terrell Pryor, Ohio State
2009: 167-295 (56.6%), 2094 yards, 18 TD, 11 Int / 162 rushes, 779 yards, 7 TD
2010: 17-25 (68%), 247 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT / 8 rushes, 17 yards
Last: 17-25 (68%), 247 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT / 8 rushes, 17 yards

Jake Locker, Washington
2009: 230-395 (58.2%), 2,800 yards, 21 TD, 11 Int / 112 rushes, 388 yards, 7 TD
2010: 20-37 (54.1%), 266 yards, 1 TD, 0 Int / 11 rushes, 29 yards, 1 TD
Last: 20-37 (54.1%), 266 yards, 1 TD, 0 Int / 11 rushes, 29 yards, 1 TD

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2009: 225-403 (55.8%), 3,627 yards, 30 TD, 7 Int
2010: 21-24 (87.5%), 301 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int
Last: 21-24 (87.5%), 301 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int

Christian Ponder, Florida State
2009: 227-330 (68.8%), 2,717 yards, 14 TD, 7 INT
2010: 12-14 (85.7%), 167 yards, 4 TD, 1 Int
Last: 12-14 (85.7%), 167 yards, 4 TD, 1 Int

Jacory Harris, Miami
2009: 242-406 (59.6%), 3,352 yards, 24 TD, 17 INT
2010: 12-15 (80%), 210 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int
Last: 12-15 (80%), 210 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int

Landry Jones, Oklahoma
2009: 261-449 (58.1%), 3,198 yards, 26 TD, 14 INT
2010: 17-36 (47.2%), 217 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int
Last: 17-36 (47.2%), 217 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int

Matt Barkley, USC
2009: 211-352 (59.9%), 2,735 yards, 15 TD, 14 INT
2010: 18-23 (78.3%), 257 yards, 5 TD, 0 Int
Last: 18-23 (78.3%), 257 yards, 5 TD, 0 Int

Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M
2009: 296-497 (59.6%), 3,579 yards, 30 TD, 8 Int / 145 rush, 508 yards, 8 TD
2010: 28-40 (70%), 322 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int
Last: 28-40 (70%), 322 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int

Kellen Moore, Boise State
2009: 277-431 (64.3%), 3,536 yards, 39 TD, 3 INT
2010: 23-38 (60.5%), 215 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int
Last: 23-38 (60.5%), 215 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int

Case Keenum, Houston
2009: 492-700 (70.3%), 5,671 yards, 44 TD, 15 INT
2010: 17-22 (77.3%), 274 yards, 5 TD, 2 Int
Last: 17-22 (77.3%), 274 yards, 5 TD, 2 Int

ON THE RADAR: Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State; DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma; Daniel Thomas, Kansas State; Andrew Luck, Stanford; Greg McElroy, Alabama; Denard Robinson, Michigan; Cameron Newton, Auburn

Did you miss the College Football Haven Week 1 Top 25? Check it out here

Heisman Trophy Hopefuls, Preseason 2010

The collge football season can’t get underway without looking at who might win the Heisman Trophy. Last year was supposed to be the year of the quarterbacks: Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow. It turned out to be the year of the running backs with Alabama’s Mark Ingram edging out Stanford’s Toby Gerhart by the slimmest margin in history. While Ingram is back, the race is wide open this year.

Jake Locker and Terrell Pryor are getting the most publicity right now, but they will have plenty of company. Several players made a name for themselves last year, and with big performances this year they could be sitting in New York come December. Others showed that they have the tools to be successful and put themselves on the Heisman radar. If they play to their potential this year, they could be handed a ticket to New York as well.

Here is the College Football Haven preseason Heisman Hopefuls (of course, this list is ALWAYS subject to change and players will be added and dropped as the season progresses).

Mark Ingram, Alabama
2009: 271 rushes, 1,658 yards, 17 TD
2010:--
Last:--

John Clay, Wisconsin
2009: 287 rushes, 1,517 yards, 18 TD
2010:--
Last:--

Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech
2009: 293 rushes, 1,655 yards, 21 TD
2010:--
Last:--

Jaquizz Rodgers, Oregon State
2009: 273 rushes, 1,440 yards, 21 TD
2010:--
Last:--

Dion Lewis, Pitt
2009: 325 rushes, 1,799 yards, 17 TD
2010:--
Last:--

Terrell Pryor, Ohio State
2009: 167-295 (56.6%), 2094 yards, 18 TD, 11 Int / 162 rushes, 779 yards, 7 TD
2010:--
Last:--

Jake Locker, Washington
2009: 230-395 (58.2%), 2,800 yards, 21 TD, 11 Int / 112 rushes, 388 yards, 7 TD
2010:--
Last:--

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2009: 225-403 (55.8%), 3,627 yards, 30 TD, 7 Int
2010:--
Last:--

Christian Ponder, Florida State
2009: 227-330 (68.8%), 2,717 yards, 14 TD, 7 INT
2010:--
Last:--

Jacory Harris, Miami
2009: 242-406 (59.6%), 3,352 yards, 24 TD, 17 INT
2010:--
Last:--

Landry Jones, Oklahoma
2009: 261-449 (58.1%), 3,198 yards, 26 TD, 14 INT
2010:--
Last:--

Matt Barkley, USC
2009: 211-352 (59.9%), 2,735 yards, 15 TD, 14 INT
2010:--
Last:--

Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M
2009: 296-497 (59.6%), 3,579 yards, 30 TD, 8 Int / 145 rush, 508 yards, 8 TD
2010:--
Last:--

Kellen Moore, Boise State
2009: 277-431 (64.3%), 3,536 yards, 39 TD, 3 INT
2010:--
Last:--

Case Keenum, Houston
2009: 492-700 (70.3%), 5,671 yards, 44 TD, 15 INT
2010:--
Last:--

Did you miss the College Football Haven Preseason Top 25? Check it out here

New Year, Same Old Story: The SEC is Overrated

The USA Today (Coaches) Top 25 is out. I am not going to discuss the poll in depth. When the College Football Haven Top 25 comes out August 30, you will be able to see where I agree and disagree with the coaches. However, there is one thing from the coaches poll that does stick out. The SEC is still overrated. In the poll, the SEC is represented as follows:

1. Alabama
3. Florida
16. LSU
19. Arkansas
21. Georgia
23. Auburn

Six teams is one half of the SEC. Do you really expect anyone to believe that six of the top 25 teams in the country are from one conference? This poll is saying that the top half of the SEC is better than 81% of the teams in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision.

Auburn might have surprised many people with 8 wins last year after the fallout over the Gene Chizik hiring, but I think Auburn still needs to show it is ready to take the next step before being ranked.

Georgia had a down year (8-5) in 2009. However, with a redshirt freshman starting at quarterback, I am skeptical that this year will be better than the last. Guys like Sam Bradford don't grow on trees.

Arkansas is one I agree with. In fact, I think the Hogs will be a surprise team in 2010, and should be ranked higher. Ryan Mallett and Bobby Petrino will have the team racing up and down the field. If they catch a few breaks, they may find themselves in the SEC Championship game.

LSU has been disappointing, to say the least, the last two years (8-5 and 9-4). Les Miles has already lost my faith, and if he doesn’t put up 10 wins or more this year he might lose his job. Sixteen is a little bit of a stretch, I would have them closer to 20.

Florida lost Tim Tebow, the three time Heisman Trophy finalist, Aaron Hernandez, the 2009 Mackey Award winner, at tight end, and Brandon Spikes, a two-time All-American, at linebacker. Yet, Florida is starting 2010 at number 3. Talk about deja-vu. After the 2006 National Championship year, Florida had to replace the starting quarterback and some key personnel on defense. In 2007, the team finished 9-4. Why should we expect much different this year? There was a noticeable drop off from 2008 to 2009 just by Percy Harvin leaving for the NFL. Throw in Urban Meyer’s health, and the number 3 ranking for Florida is the most egregious ranking of all the SEC teams.

Last is Alabama. The 2009 National Champions are starting right where they left off. Except they will have to do so without Rolando McClain, Terrance Cody, and five other NFL draft picks. Throw in the controversial schedule that has six conference opponents given two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide, and I don’t think this team even makes the national championship game. Don’t get me wrong. I am starting to become a believer in Nick Saban the coach, and I think ‘Bama will be a top 10 team this year. I just don’t think this number one ranking is merited.

Well, maybe overrating the SEC will stop next year. Until then, there's a lot of great football to play! (Come back Thursday, August 19, 2010, as I make an overview of the 2010 season before getting into previewing each conference.)

Poll Results: Who will be the best quarterback in 2010?

Jake Locker (Washington) received 40% of the votes to lead this poll. Kellen Moore (Boise State) came in second with 30%. Christian Ponder (Florida State) was third and Ryan Mallet (Arkansas) was fourth. No other quarterbacks received votes.

Thank you to all who participated. Don't forget to vote in the new poll: What should be done about the 2005 Heisman Trophy?

COACHING: SOPHOMORE SUCCESS

Except when a head coach voluntarily retires, coaching changes are usually made when a team has poor win-loss record. The new coach is expected to come in and improve that record. Even when coaches retire on good terms, the successor coach is expected to take the team to the next level (unless the team is already at the top—in that case the coach only needs to maintain the formers’ level of success). More often than not, coaches achieve the expected improvement incrementally, and school athletic directors realize this and allow new coaches 3 to 5 years to accomplish the desired success. For example, if a team won 6 games the year before, we expect 8-9 wins the next year, and maybe 10-11 wins the following year. However, some coaches surprise everyone and skip a step or two on the ladder of success in year 2. Some examples of this sophomore success for coaches was achieved by the following:

Nick Saban, Alabama, 2007: 6 wins 6 losses, 2008: 12-2

Urban Meyer, Florida, 2005: 9-3, 2006: 13-1 (SEC and National Champions)

Bronco Mendenhall, BYU, 2005: 6-6, 2006: 11-2 (MWC Champions)

Pete Carroll, USC, 2001: 6-6, 2002: 11-2 (Pac-10 Champions)

Bob Stoops, Oklahoma, 1999: 7-5, 2000: 13-0 (Big 12 and National Champions)

My point is that as the 2009 season starts we should keep an eye on second year coaches. Their Teams can easily fly under the radar. However, some of them might be primed for a breakout year, including the following:

Rich Rodriguez, Michigan, 2008: 3-9

Bobby Petrino, Arkansas, 2008: 5-7

Huston Nutt, Ole Miss, 2008: 9-4

June Jones, SMU, 2008: 1-11

(While Urban Meyer’s 9 wins can be considered a success in his first year, I included him because no one expected his 2006 Gators to contend, let alone win, the national championship his second year. The same can be said for Houston Nutt. He was surprisingly successful last year, but no one is taking Ole Miss serious as a national title contender. If the Rebels do win the national championship, then I would say he fits the unexpected sophomore success lebel.)